# Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Visibility from Net Smart Meters: Deployment Regimes and Operational Insights

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12527 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.12527/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Exploring Blockchain for The Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.06046/) (2021)
- [Season-Independent PV Disaggregation Using Multi-Scale Net Load Temporal Feature Extraction and Weather Factor Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18747/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Distribution operators need visibility of behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) generation, yet most residential customers are observed only through net smart meters. Deep-learning-based PV disaggregation can restore this visibility, but its operational value depends on whether the model serves known customers, new customers, future periods, or new regions. We quantify this dependence using four deployment regimes that separate household transfer from temporal extrapolation, applied to Ausgrid smart-meter data with cross-dataset adaptation to the Pecan Street data. Using a fixed training protocol, we benchmark representative deep sequence architectures for PV disaggregation under regime-matched evaluation. At a fixed 48-hour context length, daylight mean absolute error (MAE) of the best model rises from 0.104~kW on seen households in the future test period to 0.185~kW on unseen households over the same period, and under a fixed training contract the deployment regime explains far more of the error variation than model choice. Under target-domain normalization, fine-tuning on five target-region households reduces source-model transfer error by 28%--36%. Long input windows help known-customer extrapolation, while their new-customer benefits vary by model. These findings suggest regime-matched error budgets, limited target supervision for model adaptation in new regions, and use-case-dependent context selection for energy data analytics.