# SpaceCast-Bench: Evaluating Predictive Spatial Reasoning in Vision-Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12402 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.12402/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Spatial and embodied reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 13 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Spatial and embodied reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/spatial-and-embodied-reasoning/)
- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [Embodied and 3D vision-language models](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/embodied-and-3d-vision-language-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.21631/) (2025)
- [World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10122/) (2018)
- [V-JEPA 2: Self-Supervised Video Models Enable Understanding, Prediction and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09985/) (2025)
- [SpaceR: Reinforcing MLLMs in Video Spatial Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01805/) (2025)
- [Cambrian-S: Towards Spatial Supersensing in Video](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04670/) (2025)
- [ViewSpatial-Bench: Evaluating Multi-perspective Spatial Localization in Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.21500/) (2025)
- [Visual Spatial Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.05491/) (2025)
- [DSI-Bench: A Benchmark for Dynamic Spatial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.18873/) (2025)
- [SpatialWorld: Benchmarking Interactive Spatial Reasoning of Multimodal Agents in Real-World Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09669/) (2026)
- [SpaMEM: Benchmarking Dynamic Spatial Reasoning via Perception-Memory Integration in Embodied Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.22409/) (2026)
- [World2VLM: Distilling World Model Imagination into VLMs for Dynamic Spatial Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.26934/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Existing spatial reasoning benchmarks mainly test spatial perception: reading off relations already visible in the input. Yet real-world spatial intelligence demands predictive spatial reasoning: constructing a scene from observations, anticipating how an intervention changes it, and reasoning about the unseen outcome. We introduce SpaceCast-Bench, the first benchmark to directly and diagnostically evaluate this capability. Built around an observe-transform-infer framework, its 3,862 questions from 182 real-world scenes span 16 task types at three levels: static perception, local prediction, and global prediction, progressively requiring scene understanding, spatial state updating, and relational inference over unobserved outcomes. Evaluating 21 models exposes a stark gap: the strongest model reaches only 58.0% against 87.2% human performance, while spatially specialized models remain near random chance. Controlled analyses further reveal that bridge views are critical for integrating distributed observations, and that explicit 3D evidence benefits models more reliably than generated outcome images or videos. Fine-tuning on our programmatically generated data lifts Qwen3-VL-4B from 34.0% to 65.7% with macro-average gains across six out-of-domain benchmarks.