# AliO: Output Alignment Matters in Long-Term Time Series Forecasing

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11213 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.11213/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [TS2Vec: Towards Universal Representation of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.10466/) (2021)
- [Time-Series Representation Learning via Temporal and Contextual Contrasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.14112/) (2021)
- [Auxiliary Tasks in Multi-task Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06334/) (2018)
- [Battling the Non-stationarity in Time Series Forecasting via Test-time Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04970/) (2025)
- [Long Input Sequence Network for Long Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15869/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks, which leverage the current data sequence as input to predict the future sequence, have become increasingly crucial in real-world applications such as weather forecasting and planning of electricity consumption. However, state-of-the-art LTSF models often fail to achieve prediction output alignment for the same timestamps across lagged input sequences. Instead, these models exhibit low output alignment, resulting in fluctuation in prediction outputs for the same timestamps, undermining the model's reliability. To address this, we propose AliO (Align Outputs), a novel approach designed to improve the output alignment of LTSF models by reducing the discrepancies between prediction outputs for the same timestamps in both the time and frequency domains. To measure output alignment, we introduce a new metric, TAM (Time Alignment Metric), which quantifies the alignment between prediction outputs, whereas existing metrics such as MSE only capture the distance between prediction outputs and ground truths. Experimental results show that AliO effectively improves the output alignment, i.e., up to 58.2% in TAM, while maintaining or enhancing the forecasting performance (up to 27.5%). This improved output alignment increases the reliability of the LTSF models, making them more applicable in real-world scenarios.