# Training Parallel Speculative Draft Models by Directly Minimizing Expected Decoding Rounds

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10411 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.10411/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Speculative decoding, one of 12 directions in Efficient LLM inference and serving.
- Builds on 37 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [Speculative decoding](https://mlsanity.com/inference/speculative-decoding/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
- [Accelerating Large Language Model Decoding with Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01318/) (2023)
- [Large Language Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09992/) (2025)
- [Medusa: Simple LLM Inference Acceleration Framework with Multiple Decoding Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10774/) (2024)
- [Discrete Diffusion Modeling by Estimating the Ratios of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16834/) (2023)
- [EAGLE: Speculative Sampling Requires Rethinking Feature Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.15077/) (2024)
- [Dream 7B: Diffusion Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15487/) (2025)
- [From Crowdsourced Data to High-Quality Benchmarks: Arena-Hard and BenchBuilder Pipeline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11939/) (2024)
- [Analog Bits: Generating Discrete Data using Diffusion Models with Self-Conditioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.04202/) (2022)
- [Mercury: Ultra-Fast Language Models Based on Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.17298/) (2025)
- [DFlash: Block Diffusion for Flash Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06036/) (2026)
- [Hydra: Sequentially-Dependent Draft Heads for Medusa Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05109/) (2024)
- [SpecDec++: Boosting Speculative Decoding via Adaptive Candidate Lengths](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19715/) (2024)
- [The Perfect Blend: Redefining RLHF with Mixture of Judges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.20370/) (2024)
- [DSpark: Confidence-Scheduled Speculative Decoding with Semi-Autoregressive Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.05147/) (2026)
- [LangFlow: Continuous Diffusion Rivals Discrete in Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.11748/) (2026)
- [Provable Acceleration for Diffusion Models under Minimal Assumptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.23285/) (2024)
- [Optimal Inference Schedules for Masked Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04647/) (2025)
- [Efficient Sampling with Discrete Diffusion Models: Sharp and Adaptive Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.15008/) (2026)
- [LK Losses: Direct Acceptance Rate Optimization for Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.23881/) (2026)
- [Confidence-Based Decoding is Provably Efficient for Diffusion Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.22248/) (2026)
- [D-PACE: Dynamic Position-Aware Cross-Entropy for Parallel Speculative Drafting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.18810/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model inference by using a low-cost draft model to propose tokens that the full-size target model verifies in parallel. Parallel and semi-autoregressive (semi- AR) drafters improve drafting efficiency by proposing an entire block in a single forward pass, but training them raises a new difficulty: the draft distribution for a given position depends on where the decoding round starts, and where rounds start depends on how many tokens earlier rounds accepted. Existing training objectives typically rely on block-local surrogates that ignore this cross-round coupling, and therefore do not directly optimize the global decoding efficiency. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework for training and evaluating these drafters by representing speculative decoding as a Markov reward process. This formulation yields the Expected Decoding Rounds (EDR) objective, which weights local rejection costs by state occupancies and exactly equals the expected number of decoding rounds. Unlike prior surrogate objectives, EDR introduces no auxiliary hyperparameters. We then derive an exact temporal-difference gradient that supports unbiased stochastic optimization from target-model rollouts. The same framework also yields an exact offline evaluator for round counts, enabling paired drafter comparisons on shared target rollouts without running speculative decoding. Finetuning two state-of-the- art drafters, DSpark and DFly, with EDR consistently improves mean accepted length and outperforms existing training objectives across nine benchmarks spanning math reasoning, code generation, and chat.