# Revisiting Numerical Forecasting Models for Language-Based Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07954 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.07954/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 79 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02531/) (2015)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Decoupled Weight Decay Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05101/) (2017)
- [Conditional Flow Variational Autoencoders for Structured Sequence Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.09008/) (2019)
- [GUIDE-CoT: Goal-driven and User-Informed Dynamic Estimation for Pedestrian Trajectory using Chain-of-Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06832/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Language-based trajectory predictors represent coordinates as discrete tokens and learn auxiliary tasks such as destination and group reasoning. This formulation enables the model to capture behavioral intent and social context beyond coordinate dynamics alone. However, token-level objectives provide only indirect guidance for continuous coordinate-space dynamics. To address this limitation, we introduce MoRE (Mixture of Reward Experts), a refinement framework that transfers numerical forecasting priors into a pretrained language-based predictor through reinforcement learning. Five frozen numerical predictors provide complementary coordinate-level knowledge of motion and interactions. Their predictions are converted into expert rewards and combined through an uncertainty-weighted consensus that penalizes disagreement. A ground-truth reward anchors the prediction to the target trajectory. To focus refinement on difficult cases, MoRE refines the policy using the top 1% of training samples ranked by predictive entropy. Expert predictions are computed once and cached before PPO training, so the experts are not run during policy updates or inference. In this way, MoRE combines the contextual modeling of the language-based predictor with coordinate-level feedback from numerical experts. On ETH-UCY, MoRE reduces ADE from 0.22 to 0.20 m and FDE from 0.32 to 0.29 m. Relative to the base policy, ADE decreases by 17.9% on SDD and 12.7% on NBA. On ETH-UCY, MoRE also reduces collision rates and better matches ground-truth pedestrian spacing, without increasing measured inference memory or latency. The project page is available at https://jungyu0413.github.io/MoRE/.