# Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Load Forecasting Under Covariate Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07232 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.07232/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Non-stationary Transformers: Exploring the Stationarity in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14415/) (2022)
- [xLSTM: Extended Long Short-Term Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04517/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23719/) (2025)
- [Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11698/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power systems. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of forecasting tasks, their effectiveness for STLF under realistic operational conditions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark of four trained-from-scratch (TFS) models and four TSFMs across three real-world load forecasting datasets under operational scenarios that differ in the availability and quality of future covariate information. Our results show that Chronos-2 consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings when future covariates are available or accurately forecast. However, its performance degrades as covariate forecasts become increasingly noisy, whereas TimesNet exhibits greater robustness under severe covariate uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of covariate-informed TSFMs for STLF while highlighting the critical role of robust covariate modeling in real-world forecasting applications.