# Xaurora: Generative Weather Forecasting with Denoising Stochastic Interpolants from a Foundation Model Prior

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.06509 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.06509/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 39 of its 61 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Decoupled Weight Decay Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05101/) (2017)
- [Perceiver: General Perception with Iterative Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03206/) (2021)
- [Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15571/) (2022)
- [Deep Networks with Stochastic Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.09382/) (2016)
- [Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08797/) (2023)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [Flow map matching with stochastic interpolants: A mathematical framework for consistency models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07507/) (2024)
- [Progressive Distillation for Fast Sampling of Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.00512/) (2022)
- [Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Interpolants and F"ollmer Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13724/) (2024)
- [Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10772/) (2025)
- [CoCoGen: Physically-Consistent and Conditioned Score-based Generative Models for Forward and Inverse Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10527/) (2023)
- [Physics-Constrained Flow Matching: Sampling Generative Models with Hard Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04171/) (2025)
- [Gradient-Free Generation for Hard-Constrained Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01786/) (2024)
- [ArchesWeather & ArchesWeatherGen: a deterministic and generative model for efficient ML weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12971/) (2024)
- [SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14066/) (2023)
- [Fixing the Double Penalty in Data-Driven Weather Forecasting Through a Modified Spherical Harmonic Loss Function](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19374/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning has revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years, especially through atmospheric foundation models, which offer competitive skill for a fraction of the computational costs of classic physics-based models. However, most existing foundation models are deterministic, limiting the generation of large ensembles for accurate uncertainty quantification, extreme weather risk assessment, and long-range weather forecasting. Furthermore, these models incur a large, often prohibitive, computational overhead to train from scratch. To address these shortcomings, we turn a pretrained deterministic prior model, namely the Aurora foundation model, into a generative ensemble-prediction model. To that end, we introduce a novel generative method, Denoising Stochastic Interpolants, combined with a replay buffer for Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) rollout, enabling probabilistic training of SDE trajectories. Our stochastic foundation model, Xaurora, is finetuned from the small Aurora version, yet it approaches the state-of-the-art on global ensemble metrics and is competitive with the large version of Aurora. Our method is parameter and sample efficient, and generates skilful 15-day forecasts in 13 minutes. Our results demonstrate that deterministic foundation models can be efficiently extended into even stronger stochastic models.