# Voltic: Distinguishing Volatility from Stochasticity in Recurrent Memory

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.05700 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05700/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 42 of its 72 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [SQuAD: 100,000+ Questions for Machine Comprehension of Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.05250/) (2016)
- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [Pointer Sentinel Mixture Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.07843/) (2016)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [PIQA: Reasoning about Physical Commonsense in Natural Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11641/) (2019)
- [BoolQ: Exploring the Surprising Difficulty of Natural Yes/No Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10044/) (2019)
- [Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02789/) (2018)
- [Transformers are RNNs: Fast Autoregressive Transformers with Linear Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16236/) (2020)
- [Root Mean Square Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.07467/) (2019)
- [LongBench: A Bilingual, Multitask Benchmark for Long Context Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.14508/) (2023)
- [RULER: What's the Real Context Size of Your Long-Context Language Models?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06654/) (2024)
- [Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04551/) (2018)
- [The FineWeb Datasets: Decanting the Web for the Finest Text Data at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17557/) (2024)
- [The LAMBADA dataset: Word prediction requiring a broad discourse context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06031/) (2016)
- [Sigmoid-Weighted Linear Units for Neural Network Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.03118/) (2017)
- [DROP: A Reading Comprehension Benchmark Requiring Discrete Reasoning Over Paragraphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.00161/) (2019)
- [SAMSum Corpus: A Human-annotated Dialogue Dataset for Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12237/) (2019)
- [Gated Delta Networks: Improving Mamba2 with Delta Rule](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06464/) (2024)
- [Datasets: A Community Library for Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.02846/) (2021)
- [Linear Transformers Are Secretly Fast Weight Programmers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11174/) (2021)
- [A Dataset of Information-Seeking Questions and Answers Anchored in Research Papers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.03011/) (2021)
- [Parallelizing Linear Transformers with the Delta Rule over Sequence Length](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06484/) (2024)
- [BABILong: Testing the Limits of LLMs with Long Context Reasoning-in-a-Haystack](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10149/) (2024)
- [Simple linear attention language models balance the recall-throughput tradeoff](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18668/) (2024)
- [Zoology: Measuring and Improving Recall in Efficient Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.04927/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recurrent sequence models must decide how strongly to overwrite their memory at each token. Read as Bayesian filtering, this write is the gain of a Kalman update, set by uncertainty from two sources that pull it in opposite directions: volatility, how quickly the underlying associations change, and stochasticity, how noisy each observation of them is. First, we show that the update of gated delta-rule memories is the form this filter takes under isotropic uncertainty. Next, we introduce Voltic, a recurrent memory that keeps the covariance anisotropic and makes both noise variances input-dependent, so the write is vector-valued and carries uncertainty accumulated over the sequence. A dense covariance would have to be propagated token by token, ruling out the parallel training these models depend on. We therefore give two assumed-density approximations, diagonal and quasi-diagonal, both of which leave the memory update in delta-rule form and reuse its chunked kernels. On controlled recall tasks in which associations change and observations are corrupted, Voltic leads all baselines. On the task combining volatility and stochasticity, its margin over the strongest baseline is larger at both extrapolation sizes than at the training sizes. In 45M-parameter language models it leads an eight-task reasoning average and achieves higher retrieval accuracy beyond the training context length than gated baselines, at throughput close to those baselines. Deriving the write from an uncertainty recursion therefore makes memory more responsive to change.