# BeliefGraph-JEPA: Structured Latent World Models for Action-Conditioned Time Series

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.05409 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05409/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Latent predictive world models, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 37 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- World models / [Latent predictive world models](https://mlsanity.com/wm/latent-predictive-world-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [Modeling Relational Data with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06103/) (2017)
- [Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04551/) (2018)
- [Self-Supervised Learning from Images with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08243/) (2023)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [V-JEPA 2: Self-Supervised Video Models Enable Understanding, Prediction and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09985/) (2025)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Revisiting Feature Prediction for Learning Visual Representations from Video](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08471/) (2024)
- [DINO-WM: World Models on Pre-trained Visual Features enable Zero-shot Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04983/) (2024)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07719/) (2021)
- [Embed to Control: A Locally Linear Latent Dynamics Model for Control from Raw Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.07365/) (2015)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [VisualPredicator: Learning Abstract World Models with Neuro-Symbolic Predicates for Robot Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.23156/) (2024)
- [DAG: A Dual Correlation Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.14933/) (2025)
- [ChronosX: Adapting Pretrained Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.12107/) (2025)
- [EHRWorld: A Patient-Centric Medical World Model for Long-Horizon Clinical Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03569/) (2026)
- [Graph World Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.10539/) (2025)
- [Delta-JEPA: Learning Action-Sensitive World Models via Latent Difference Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.31232/) (2026)
- [Joint Embeddings Go Temporal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25449/) (2025)
- [GCGNet: Graph-Consistent Generative Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08032/) (2026)
- [Time-Series JEPA for Predictive Remote Control under Capacity-Limited Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04853/) (2024)
- [ExoPredicator: Learning Abstract Models of Dynamic Worlds for Robot Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26255/) (2025)
- [UniCA: Unified Covariate Adaptation for Time Series Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.22039/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Action-conditioned time-series forecasting requires accounting for how future actions and exogenous forcings influence multiple targets through partially observed effects with different delays and persistence. Direct conditioning leaves the evolution and target-specific influence of these effects implicit in the predictor, while static relational graphs specify connections without tracking evolving effects. This motivates representing future-driver influence through structured latent states that evolve over the forecast horizon and route information to individual targets. We introduce BeliefGraph-JEPA, a structured latent world model that factorizes driver influence into typed latent-effect states. These states are rolled forward under future drivers and routed through a graph to target-specific nodes, forming the predictive base of a joint-embedding predictive architecture. A capacity-controlled residual supplements this base with direct driver information. On four multi-target clinical, agricultural, environmental, and industrial systems, the framework outperforms a range of pretrained and supervised known-future-covariate baselines. Matched controls isolate latent dynamics, future rollout, graph routing, and residual capacity; future rollout and graph-first residual routing improve forecasting across all four systems.