# BAIBAICHUCHU at the NTCIR-19 FinArg-3 Task: When Is Maximum Possible Profit Predictable from Investor Text?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03962 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.03962/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Revisiting Pre-Trained Models for Chinese Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13922/) (2020)
- [Pre-Finetuning with Impact Duration Awareness for Stock Movement Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17419/) (2024)
- [Enhancing Investment Opinion Ranking through Argument-Based Sentiment Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17417/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The BAIBAICHUCHU team participated in the Social Media Subtask of NTCIR-19 FinArg-3, ranking Chinese investor posts by Maximum Possible Profit (MPP). A three-track ensemble of lexical features, a FinArg-2-pre-finetuned MacBERT ranker, and an LLM judge reaches 0.734 in post-grouped development evaluation, but our best official run scores 0.517. All twelve submitted runs lie between 0.4598 and 0.5402, and our 26 unanimous three-track pairs score 0.500. A post-hoc audit finds that the submitted judge applied a long-only rule to bearish posts although MPP is stance-aware. Correcting it changes 28 of 87 official predictions without changing accuracy, yet lowers development accuracy from 0.680 to 0.622: a regime-specific semantic shortcut improved validation fit. We decompose ranking into directional text, volatility and horizon, and pairwise margin. A running-extremum model predicts σ√T scaling, observed ex post in 502 price-aligned posts from a separate July 2026 collection. Pre-posting volatility scaled by the post-specific observation horizon, σpre,20√Ni, is associated with a later truncated-horizon MPP proxy (Spearman ρ=0.320; ticker-cluster 95% CI [0.133,0.466]) and correctly orders 61.4% of unequal-outcome pairs. Transferred text is nearly uncorrelated with the July outcome (ρ=0.055) and adds little conditional on this score and stance. Development reliability rises from about 0.60 to 0.93 as the labeled MPP gap widens. An earlier ERAI result of 0.6207 rules out universal unpredictability as a simple explanation. Evaluation should jointly consider text, market regime, historical volatility, horizon, and pair composition.