# Predicting and Repairing Merge Collapse in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03199 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.03199/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 49 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 49)

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- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
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- [Don't Stop Pretraining: Adapt Language Models to Domains and Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10964/) (2020)
- [Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05482/) (2022)
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- [TIES-Merging: Resolving Interference When Merging Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01708/) (2023)
- [Language Models are Super Mario: Absorbing Abilities from Homologous Models as a Free Lunch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03099/) (2023)
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- [Transformer Feed-Forward Layers Build Predictions by Promoting Concepts in the Vocabulary Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.14680/) (2022)
- [AdaMerging: Adaptive Model Merging for Multi-Task Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02575/) (2023)
- [Task Arithmetic in the Tangent Space: Improved Editing of Pre-Trained Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12827/) (2023)
- [Arcee's MergeKit: A Toolkit for Merging Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13257/) (2024)
- [Patching open-vocabulary models by interpolating weights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05592/) (2022)
- [Task Singular Vectors: Reducing Task Interference in Model Merging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00081/) (2024)
- [Localizing Task Information for Improved Model Merging and Compression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07813/) (2024)
- [Twin-Merging: Dynamic Integration of Modular Expertise in Model Merging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15479/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models fine-tuned from a shared base can be merged by averaging their task vectors, but some merges collapse far below the base model, and common merge operators give no warning before evaluation. We show that one statistic of the specialists' task vectors both predicts this collapse and calibrates its repair. The power that averaging removes equals the variance of the task vectors across specialists, our measure of interference. Under a working noise model, the disturbance that a merge injects grows with the merge coefficient and with interference, yielding a pre-merge score. In our experiments on twenty-two merge configurations from four model families, only destructive merges exceed a threshold on this score. We find that statistics of sign conflict between specialists, a common target of existing merge operators, are anti-predictive. We then predicted the outcomes of fourteen merges before evaluating them, and twelve predictions were correct, including the destructive outcome of a specialist pair pushed past the threshold by continued pretraining. To address this collapse, we introduce PRISM, an operator that averages the task vectors first and then soft-thresholds each layer at a level set by the layer's interference. Without data or tuning, PRISM keeps all five destructive merges above the threshold within evaluation noise of the base model, where plain averaging falls at least 14.4 points below it or collapses entirely. We apply PRISM only above the threshold and keep the plain average for merges below it, which include all fifteen harmless ones. Code is available at https://github.com/js-lee-AI/PRISM.