# Revealing Epistemic Uncertainty in MLLMs via Causal-Invariant Masking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02887 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.02887/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MLLM training and visual instruction tuning, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 37 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [MLLM training and visual instruction tuning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/mllm-training-and-visual-instruction-tuning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [Grounding DINO: Marrying DINO with Grounded Pre-Training for Open-Set Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.05499/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [Making the V in VQA Matter: Elevating the Role of Image Understanding in Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00837/) (2016)
- [DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03654/) (2020)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [Evaluating Object Hallucination in Large Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10355/) (2023)
- [MME: A Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark for Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13394/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [OK-VQA: A Visual Question Answering Benchmark Requiring External Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00067/) (2019)
- [How Far Are We to GPT-4V? Closing the Gap to Commercial Multimodal Models with Open-Source Suites](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16821/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Survey on Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13549/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Causal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1501.01332/) (2015)
- [Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06196/) (2024)
- [Florence-2: Advancing a Unified Representation for a Variety of Vision Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06242/) (2023)
- [Hallucination of Multimodal Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18930/) (2024)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Domain Separation Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06019/) (2016)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [COLD Decoding: Energy-based Constrained Text Generation with Langevin Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11705/) (2022)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [Adversarial VQA: A New Benchmark for Evaluating the Robustness of VQA Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00245/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Multimodal Large Language Model from A Data-centric Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16640/) (2024)
- [VL-Uncertainty: Detecting Hallucination in Large Vision-Language Model via Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.11919/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) suffer from hallucinations, creating a critical need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to ensure reliable deployment. However, existing approaches struggle to detect uncertainty caused by superficial associations, especially when the query-relevant signal is weak. We mainly attribute this issue to their bias toward aleatoric uncertainty arising from data ambiguity, overlooking epistemic uncertainty stemming from model limitations. To further decompose uncertainty types for a comprehensive UQ, we propose Causal-Invariant Masking (CIM), which measures the semantic shift between the original predictions and those conditioned on a causally-focused view. Based on this framework, we introduce Semantic Divergence as our core metric for UQ and provide theoretical evidence that it converges to the variance of model's sensitivity to non-causal correlations, establishing its ability to capture MLLM's limitation. To accelerate UQ in MLLMs, we further propose Expected Embedding Drift (EED), a fast geometric proxy metric that estimates semantic shift directly within the hyperspherical embedding space. Experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks, while the proposed EED accelerates by nearly 50% with comparable performance.