# On Unlearning for Time-series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02865 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.02865/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Machine unlearning, one of 12 directions in LLM safety and security.
- Builds on 25 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM safety and security / [Machine unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/safety/machine-unlearning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Neural Tangent Kernel: Convergence and Generalization in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07572/) (2018)
- [Membership Inference Attacks against Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.05820/) (2016)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Membership Inference Attacks From First Principles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03570/) (2021)
- [Wide Neural Networks of Any Depth Evolve as Linear Models Under Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.06720/) (2019)
- [On Lazy Training in Differentiable Programming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.07956/) (2018)
- [Certified Data Removal from Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.03030/) (2019)
- [TOFU: A Task of Fictitious Unlearning for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06121/) (2024)
- [Negative Preference Optimization: From Catastrophic Collapse to Effective Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05868/) (2024)
- [Making AI Forget You: Data Deletion in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05012/) (2019)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [Amnesiac Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.10981/) (2020)
- [Towards Unbounded Machine Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09880/) (2023)
- [Can Bad Teaching Induce Forgetting? Unlearning in Deep Networks using an Incompetent Teacher](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.08096/) (2022)
- [Fast Machine Unlearning Without Retraining Through Selective Synaptic Dampening](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07707/) (2023)
- [Finite Versus Infinite Neural Networks: an Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.15801/) (2020)
- [Non-Transferable Learning: A New Approach for Model Ownership Verification and Applicability Authorization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06916/) (2021)
- [On Large Language Model Continual Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10223/) (2024)
- [Label Smoothing Improves Machine Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07698/) (2024)
- [Phase-driven Domain Generalizable Learning for Nonstationary Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05960/) (2024)
- [Exploring Federated Unlearning: Review, Comparison, and Insights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.19218/) (2023)
- [DACR: Distribution-Augmented Contrastive Reconstruction for Time-Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11271/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time-series forecasting is widely used in sensitive domains. Models in these settings are often trained on longitudinal user- or entity-level records, which may later require removal because they contain sensitive or proprietary information or have been corrupted by sensor failures. To address such deletion requests without costly retraining, machine unlearning has been widely studied as a practical mechanism for privacy protection and data governance. However, the application of machine unlearning to time series prediction has not yet been well realized; this is mainly due to the following unique challenges: Gradient-based unlearning can be unstable because a deleted observation participates in multiple causally connected forecasting windows, causing parameter updates to propagate beyond the requested interval and degrade retained forecasting utility. Label-guided updating offers a more controlled alternative, but continuous and context-dependent forecasts lack a suitable replacement target, while the exact-retrained output is unavailable during unlearning. Moreover, the remaining support for a deleted temporal pattern is highly non-uniform. Some affected windows retain structurally similar counterparts in the retained data, whereas others become underrepresented or isolated. We present RDTU, a Residual Diffusion framework for time-series unlearning. RDTU first uses a retained-set neural tangent kernel predictor to obtain a deletion-compatible base forecast. Then it quantifies the global and local structural support of each affected window using the volume contribution of the retained-reference data. Then a diffusion model generates a residual correction that estimates the counterfactual forecast, yielding a pseudo-label field that guides a lightweight model update. Experiments show that RDTU consistently produces unlearned models that most closely match exact retraining.