# Capability Scaling-Down Laws for LLM Compression

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02462 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.02462/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 64 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 64)

- [Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02531/) (2015)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01108/) (2019)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
- [QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14314/) (2023)
- [SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06770/) (2023)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Deep Compression: Compressing Deep Neural Networks with Pruning, Trained Quantization and Huffman Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.00149/) (2015)
- [The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis: Finding Sparse, Trainable Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.03635/) (2018)
- [Pythia: A Suite for Analyzing Large Language Models Across Training and Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01373/) (2023)
- [SmoothQuant: Accurate and Efficient Post-Training Quantization for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.10438/) (2022)
- [AWQ: Activation-aware Weight Quantization for LLM Compression and Acceleration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00978/) (2023)
- [Constructing A Multi-hop QA Dataset for Comprehensive Evaluation of Reasoning Steps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.01060/) (2020)
- [AgentBench: Evaluating LLMs as Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03688/) (2023)
- [SparseGPT: Massive Language Models Can Be Accurately Pruned in One-Shot](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00774/) (2023)
- [On-Policy Distillation of Language Models: Learning from Self-Generated Mistakes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13649/) (2023)
- [MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Composition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00573/) (2021)
- [LLM.int8(): 8-bit Matrix Multiplication for Transformers at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07339/) (2022)
- [Are NLP Models really able to Solve Simple Math Word Problems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07191/) (2021)
- [A Simple and Effective Pruning Approach for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.11695/) (2023)
- [Distilling Step-by-Step! Outperforming Larger Language Models with Less Training Data and Smaller Model Sizes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.02301/) (2023)
- [LLM-Pruner: On the Structural Pruning of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11627/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

LLM compression reduces inference costs and memory requirements, but selecting a method and configuration remains largely empirical because comparable resource reductions can produce different capability losses. We systematically investigate capability scaling-down laws for LLM compression across pruning, quantization, and distillation. Our framework measures capability loss in mathematics, code generation, and question answering, and relates these measurements to model size, training stage, compression settings, data availability, and training exposure. We develop simple predictive relations and evaluate their accuracy, measurement efficiency, and generalization to unseen configurations and model states. Sharing the density response across pruning levels halves the configuration measurements needed to fit a pruning predictor: on new Pythia states, on pre-registered OLMo-2 test states and under Wanda pruning, the compact relation matches a regression fitted with all measurements on math and code to within 0.020 nats per token, with coefficients refitted for each setting. Controlled distillation experiments show that the cost of heavy data reuse recurs across question-answering distributions, while the net benefit depends on the evaluation distribution. We further evaluate the decision value of these predictions by comparing numerical selection with configuration medians and fixed method priorities. Independent evaluations across two model families show that selection captures most of the available cross-method benefit for question answering within the tested candidate sets, where a fixed method priority attains the same regret, with smaller opportunities for mathematics and code. These results clarify the predictive scope of capability scaling-down laws and their use in compression method selection. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/LabRAI/scaling_down_law.