# TRACE: A Reproducible Benchmark for Electricity Price Forecasting with Official Operational Text

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02256 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.02256/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19348/) (2026)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00816/) (2025)
- [Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08004/) (2020)
- [Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18959/) (2024)
- [Time-MMD: Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08627/) (2024)
- [Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11698/) (2025)
- [Time-IMM: A Dataset and Benchmark for Irregular Multimodal Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10412/) (2025)
- [Fidel-TS: A High-Fidelity Multimodal Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24789/) (2025)
- [A probabilistic forecast methodology for volatile electricity prices in the Australian National Electricity Market](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07289/) (2023)
- [From Text to Forecasts: Bridging Modality Gap with Temporal Evolution Semantic Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.12664/) (2026)
- [NSW-EPNews: A News-Augmented Benchmark for Electricity Price Forecasting with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.11050/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) supports scheduling, bidding, and risk management in electricity markets, yet existing benchmarks focus mainly on numerical inputs, leaving the forecasting value of forecast-time textual context insufficiently evaluated. We introduce TRACE, a reproducible benchmark of 7,300 zone--day instances pairing prices from five zones in a major U.S. market with official operational text available at the forecast cutoff. TRACE reconstructs official operational text at each cutoff, preventing post-cutoff information leakage. We evaluate TRACE for semantic alignment and forecasting value. Semantic assessments align with central movement and both tail risks in ground-truth prices, most consistently for upper-tail price risk. Forecasting value is reflected in a median 7.4% reduction in upper-tail pinball loss across time-series foundation models. A controlled cross-day text-mismatch ablation reverses the gains, falling below the no-text baseline.