# Loading history and window geometry bound compact-state slip ranking during granular shear startup

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00124 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.00124/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Granular slip forecasting can conflate material state, loading progress, and the geometry of event-centered sampling. We separated these contributions in slowly sheared two-dimensional frictional disks using a compact neural score of stress, pressure, coordination, non-affine motion, and force-network observables. The model was developed on 36 trajectories and frozen efore testing on 18 new trajectories under two nested stress-drop definitions. Inspection of held-out results revealed post-event sampling asymmetry; recovery-aware analyses are therefore descriptive. With trajectories weighted equally, the compact score ranked near-slip windows above both prevalence and within-trajectory circular-phase controls under both definitions (representative average precision 0.310 versus prevalence 0.173; phase-null upper bound 0.257). Loading-history coordinates ranked more strongly, reaching 0.534 for causal elapsed strain. The recovery-aware rule retained 78.4% of activity-gated events and preferentially selected longer preceding intervals; ranking by time since the previous catalogued event remained compatible with a count-conditioned geometry null. Compact observables thus contain temporally aligned slip information, but stronger loading-history baselines and window-geometry sensitivity bound that evidence. These startup data do not isolate a state-specific short-horizon precursor beyond loading history or support a renewal interpretation of elapsed-strain ranking.