# Semifactual Credit-Augmented Policy Optimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.40360 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.40360/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 35 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [Understanding R1-Zero-Like Training: A Critical Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20783/) (2025)
- [OlympiadBench: A Challenging Benchmark for Promoting AGI with Olympiad-Level Bilingual Multimodal Scientific Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14008/) (2024)
- [Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13837/) (2025)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [Group Sequence Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18071/) (2025)
- [Beyond the 80/20 Rule: High-Entropy Minority Tokens Drive Effective Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01939/) (2025)
- [GSM-Symbolic: Understanding the Limitations of Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05229/) (2024)
- [Causal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1501.01332/) (2015)
- [SimpleRL-Zoo: Investigating and Taming Zero Reinforcement Learning for Open Base Models in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18892/) (2025)
- [Process Reinforcement through Implicit Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01456/) (2025)
- [The Entropy Mechanism of Reinforcement Learning for Reasoning Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22617/) (2025)
- [Omni-MATH: A Universal Olympiad Level Mathematic Benchmark For Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.07985/) (2024)
- [Learning to Reason under Off-Policy Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.14945/) (2025)
- [VinePPO: Refining Credit Assignment in RL Training of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01679/) (2024)
- [Soft Adaptive Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.20347/) (2025)
- [Identifying and Mitigating Spurious Correlations for Improving Robustness in NLP Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.07736/) (2021)
- [Wait, We Don't Need to "Wait"! Removing Thinking Tokens Improves Reasoning Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.08343/) (2025)
- [On Generating Plausible Counterfactual and Semi-Factual Explanations for Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.06399/) (2020)
- [Unlocking Exploration in RLVR: Uncertainty-aware Advantage Shaping for Deeper Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10649/) (2025)
- [A Rationale-Centric Framework for Human-in-the-loop Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12918/) (2022)
- [FIPO: Eliciting Deep Reasoning with Future-KL Influenced Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.19835/) (2026)
- [Enhancing Large Language Model Reasoning via Selective Critical Token Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10974/) (2025)
- [Outcome-Grounded Advantage Reshaping for Fine-Grained Credit Assignment in Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.07408/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet their predictions remain sensitive to task-irrelevant prompt features. We investigate this sensitivity through semifactual prompt interventions that preserve the underlying problem and its answer. Our analysis reveals substantial variation in token-level sensitivity and shows that suppressing high-drift token candidates during decoding improves reasoning accuracy without updating model weights. These findings highlight a limitation of Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), which assigns the same outcome-derived advantage to every response token and may reinforce potential spurious dependence alongside useful reasoning. Motivated by this observation, we introduce Semifactual Credit-Augmented Policy Optimization (SCAPO), a causally inspired variant of GRPO that incorporates semifactual stability into token-level credit assignment. SCAPO measures token probability drift for fixed responses under semifactual interventions and uses normalized stability scores to reduce advantages for relatively unstable tokens during early training, while granting no additional credit for stability alone. On Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-1.7B-Base, SCAPO improves AIME 2024-2026 accuracy over GRPO by 5.63 and 4.17 percentage points, respectively. At both model scales, SCAPO achieves the best results on most evaluated mathematics benchmarks and all evaluated out-of-distribution benchmarks among the compared methods. These results suggest that semifactual stability provides an effective training signal for improving reasoning and generalization through finer-grained credit assignment in RLVR. The code is available at https://github.com/DtYXs/SCAPO.