# Reliability-Aware Checkpoint Selection for Domain Generalization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39934 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39934/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Deep CORAL: Correlation Alignment for Deep Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.01719/) (2016)
- [Deep Hashing Network for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07522/) (2017)
- [In Search of Lost Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01434/) (2020)
- [Deeper, Broader and Artier Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.03077/) (2017)
- [Out-of-Distribution Generalization via Risk Extrapolation (REx)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00688/) (2020)
- [Recognition in Terra Incognita](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.04975/) (2018)
- [SWAD: Domain Generalization by Seeking Flat Minima](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08604/) (2021)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [Ensemble of Averages: Improving Model Selection and Boosting Performance in Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.10832/) (2021)
- [On Calibration and Out-of-domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.10395/) (2021)
- [Pareto Invariant Risk Minimization: Towards Mitigating the Optimization Dilemma in Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07766/) (2022)
- [Confidence Calibration for Domain Generalization under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00742/) (2021)
- [Towards Optimization and Model Selection for Domain Generalization: A Mixup-guided Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00652/) (2022)
- [A principled approach to model validation in domain generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.00629/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Checkpoint selection in domain generalization often relies on source-validation accuracy, yet the selected checkpoint need not provide reliable probabilities on unseen target domains. Source-target distribution shifts can alter accuracy rankings, while accuracy alone does not measure predictive probability quality. We identify an empirical selection opportunity within fixed training trajectories: reselecting among checkpoints with near-optimal source accuracy can improve mean target probability quality with small observed changes in mean target accuracy. We study accuracy-constrained reliability selection (AC), which retains checkpoints within a tolerance of the best source-validation accuracy and ranks them by source reliability. Our reference rule aggregates within-set normalized negative log-likelihood (NLL) and class-wise calibration error (CwECE) using D_∞. AC uses no target data and requires neither additional training nor weight averaging. We evaluate five domain generalization training algorithms on three benchmarks, using PACS to develop the objectives and a 0.5-percentage-point tolerance. In exploratory aggregation comparisons on 360 OfficeHome and TerraIncognita runs, the reference rule reduces mean target soft-bin squared-gap ECE and CwECE by 0.240% and 0.182%, respectively, and NLL by 0.030 relative to Source-Acc. Mean target accuracy changes by +0.213 percentage points. These results identify opportunities for reliability-aware reselection, while the additional benefit of joint over single-objective ranking remains unresolved.