# Argus: A Real-EKS Study of When Predicting Spot Interruptions Beats Simple Checkpointing

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39067 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39067/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 12 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Megatron-LM: Training Multi-Billion Parameter Language Models Using Model Parallelism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.08053/) (2019)
- [Bamboo: Making Preemptible Instances Resilient for Affordable Training of Large DNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.12013/) (2022)
- [Varuna: Scalable, Low-cost Training of Massive Deep Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.04007/) (2021)
- [Oobleck: Resilient Distributed Training of Large Models Using Pipeline Templates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08125/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) Spot is 60% to 90% cheaper than On-Demand but can be reclaimed on just a 2-minute notice; for expensive multi-node training this loss can be severe, with one reclaim costing hours of synchronous progress. We build Argus, a Kubernetes operator, and ask empirically, on a CIFAR-10 testbed, when predicting interruptions beats simple checkpointing. Argus on real EKS survives a real Spot drain with a graceful SIGTERM checkpoint, resuming from epoch 8 and losing only the in-progress epoch. Alongside, we further find that in an 80-trial benchmark, the reactive-on-notice degrades toward no protection once interruption outpaces the fixed 2-minute notice, and predictive wasted compute is driven to zero, but with an oversized fixed lead it over-migrates so severely that at the fastest rate only one of five runs completes, while periodic is a strong ML-free baseline. A lead-time sweep turns the lead prediction into a guideline where a small lead suffices for zero waste, but excess lead is wasteful. The predictor built is advisory (a proxy label); real interruption labels and large-model-scale validation are future work.