# Adaptive Self-Consistency: From Black-Box Sampling to Distribution-Valued Feedback

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38931 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.38931/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 18 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [On the Complexity of Best Arm Identification in Multi-Armed Bandit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1407.4443/) (2014)
- [Optimal Best Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04589/) (2016)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [Let's Sample Step by Step: Adaptive-Consistency for Efficient Reasoning and Coding with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11860/) (2023)
- [Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06233/) (2025)
- [Escape Sky-high Cost: Early-stopping Self-Consistency for Multi-step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10480/) (2024)
- [Make Every Penny Count: Difficulty-Adaptive Self-Consistency for Cost-Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13457/) (2024)
- [Reasoning Aware Self-Consistency: Leveraging Reasoning Paths for Efficient LLM Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.17017/) (2024)
- [Sample Complexity and Representation Ability of Test-time Scaling Paradigms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05295/) (2025)
- [Certified Self-Consistency: Statistical Guarantees and Test-Time Training for Reliable Reasoning in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17472/) (2025)
- [Optimal Bayesian Stopping for Efficient Inference of Consistent LLM Answers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05395/) (2026)
- [Sequential Mode Estimation with Oracle Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08197/) (2019)
- [PAC Mode Estimation using PPR Martingale Confidence Sequences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.05047/) (2021)
- [CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05873/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Self-consistency samples many reasoning trajectories and aggregates their final answers, treating the LLM as a black box that returns one answer per trajectory. Yet the final answer of each trajectory is sampled from a softmax vector that is available from the model's log-probabilities. We refer to this as the grey-box setting in which each trajectory reveals this answer distribution rather than a single draw from it. We formulate efficient inference in this setting as sequential mode identification with distribution-valued observations: sample trajectories one at a time and stop as soon as the LLM's modal answer is identified at a prescribed confidence level. We characterize the asymptotic stopping rate of mode identification with distribution-valued observations exactly and show that it is never worse than the black-box rate. We then propose the ASC-D algorithm, a betting stopping rule that attains this asymptotic stopping rate. On MMLU-Redux, ASC-D uses 46.4--95.6% fewer trajectories than answer-only adaptive self-consistency baselines and achieves the highest fixed-budget correct-certification rate across three open-source models.