# Say, Echo, Do: Strategic Narratives and Revealed Positioning in Financial Markets

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38545 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.38545/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Representation Learning with Contrastive Predictive Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03748/) (2018)
- [Supervised Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.11362/) (2020)
- [FinBERT: Financial Sentiment Analysis with Pre-trained Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10063/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06673/) (2020)
- [Strategic Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.06980/) (2015)
- [Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07619/) (2023)
- [A Primer on the Signature Method in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.03788/) (2016)
- [Rank-N-Contrast: Learning Continuous Representations for Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01189/) (2022)
- [Deep Signature Transforms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.08494/) (2019)
- [Contrastive Learning with Continuous Proxy Meta-Data for 3D MRI Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08808/) (2021)
- [Assessing Look-Ahead Bias in Stock Return Predictions Generated By GPT Sentiment Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17322/) (2023)
- [Your Contrastive Learning Is Secretly Doing Stochastic Neighbor Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14814/) (2022)
- [From t-SNE to UMAP with contrastive learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01816/) (2022)
- [Lead-lag detection and network clustering for multivariate time series with an application to the US equity market](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08283/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Machine-learning signals built from financial text treat what institutions say, and what the media repeat, as evidence about value. But whoever shapes a narrative may be trading against it. We study markets with three observable voices: institutional statements (Say), media repetition (Echo) and revealed positioning (Do). We ask when words should be followed and when they should be faded. In a linear-quadratic model of an informed institution that speaks and trades before a partly credulous crowd, talking an asset down while buying it is optimal exactly when varphi2<2λ k<varphi. A distribution-free identity then shows that when the observable Say-Do covariance is negative, words carry negative predictive content and should be faded. For measurement, we derive (i) an exact factorised posterior over which articles are echoes, combining arrival times with embedding similarity; (ii) a return-aligned contrastive objective that attains its bound exactly when squared embedding distances are an increasing affine function of squared outcome distances, with the tightest loss-based certificate of which neighbour rankings survive imperfect training; and (iii) a path-signature statistic for who moved first. In a controlled market with known ground truth, echo sentiment predicts returns with a significantly negative sign in all 29 simulated markets, the rolling Say-Do correlation flags false-alarm events with an AUC of 0.90, and return-aligned embeddings organise headlines by consequence rather than topic. We also report where the tools fail.