# You Cannot Pick a Provider From the Price List: Market-Aware Routing for Open-Weight LLM Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37902 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.37902/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

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- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [AWQ: Activation-aware Weight Quantization for LLM Compression and Acceleration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00978/) (2023)
- [Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04132/) (2024)
- [Constrained Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.10528/) (2017)
- [FrugalGPT: How to Use Large Language Models While Reducing Cost and Improving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05176/) (2023)
- [Taming Throughput-Latency Tradeoff in LLM Inference with Sarathi-Serve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02310/) (2024)
- [RouterBench: A Benchmark for Multi-LLM Routing System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12031/) (2024)
- [Bandits with Knapsacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1305.2545/) (2013)
- [Large Language Model Cascades with Mixture of Thoughts Representations for Cost-efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03094/) (2023)
- [Fly-Swat or Cannon? Cost-Effective Language Model Choice via Meta-Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.06077/) (2023)
- [Linear Stochastic Bandits Under Safety Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.05814/) (2019)
- [SpotServe: Serving Generative Large Language Models on Preemptible Instances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.15566/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Quantized Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18158/) (2024)
- [Stochastic Bandits with Linear Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10185/) (2020)
- [Conservative Bandits](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04282/) (2016)
- [MixLLM: Dynamic Routing in Mixed Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18482/) (2025)
- [Nearly Optimal Adaptive Procedure with Change Detection for Piecewise-Stationary Bandit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03692/) (2018)
- [A Change-Detection based Framework for Piecewise-stationary Multi-Armed Bandit Problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.03539/) (2017)
- [CARROT: A Cost Aware Rate Optimal Router](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03261/) (2025)
- [MTRouter: Cost-Aware Multi-Turn LLM Routing with History-Model Joint Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23530/) (2026)
- [Cost-Optimal LLM Routing with Limited User Feedback under User Satisfaction Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19376/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Existing LLM routers choose among models using static per-model costs. We show that open-weight inference markets introduce a second, largely ignored decision axis: after choosing a model, a client must still choose which provider serves it. Measuring live endpoints across [nummodels] open models, competing providers, multiple task types, and three measurement waves, we find that provider choice cannot be inferred from the price list. The same model can vary sharply in quality, latency, availability, and price across providers; higher-priced providers are consistently faster, but price does not reliably predict quality or availability; and provider feasibility is task-selective, with one deployment nearly normal on knowledge tasks but catastrophically degraded on multi-step reasoning. We formulate same-model provider selection as a price-taker market-aware routing problem. A simple measured-map policy routes to the cheapest provider that is both quality-equivalent and healthy, yielding matched-quality savings while avoiding degraded endpoints. Because the map drifts, we introduce FACET, an online provider router that certifies per-(provider x task) feasibility facets and fails safe to an anchor before serving uncertified arms. Across relaxed deployment assumptions, FACET tolerates imperfect task assignment and sparse feedback, while systematic evaluator bias exposes a quality-signal trust boundary that can be mitigated with ground-truth probes or audits. Live provider runs further confirm that certification can move real traffic from a premium anchor to a substantially cheaper certified endpoint. Our results suggest that market-aware LLM routing must measure not only which model to use, but also who serves it.