# Calibration-First Cross-Cohort Multimodal Temporal Learning for Transferable Asthma-Risk Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35795 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.35795/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Domain-Adversarial Training of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.07818/) (2015)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [In Search of Lost Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01434/) (2020)
- [Multimodal Machine Learning: A Survey and Taxonomy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.09406/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Conformal prediction beyond exchangeability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13415/) (2022)
- [A review of domain adaptation without target labels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.05335/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Asthma deterioration forecasting must remain reli- able when patient populations, sensor ecosystems, and available modalities change across cohorts. Existing models commonly optimize within-cohort discrimination and may produce poorly calibrated probabilities after transfer. We present CALIBRA, a calibration-first multimodal temporal framework for short- horizon risk prediction with incomplete data. Dedicated recurrent encoders process environmental, pulmonary, symptom, medication, wearable, and context streams; a reliability-conditioned gate suppresses stale or absent modalities, while gradient-reversal training discourages avoidable cohort signatures. A shrinkage- based hierarchical logistic layer calibrates probabilities using a patient-disjoint target subset, and split conformal prediction provides abstention-capable prediction sets. To avoid fabricating clinical evidence, we evaluate the complete implementation on a documented three-cohort semi-synthetic benchmark with controlled distribution shift, informative missingness, and sealed target patients. Across five configured seeds, CALIBRA achieved mean target-test AUPRC 0.224 versus 0.240 for the strongest non-ablation comparator, TemporalTransformer; mean AUROC was 0.717, and Brier score was 0.098. Experiments additionally assess complete-modality failures, calibration, conformal coverage, decision curves, subgroup behavior, ablations, runtime, and parameter count. The results verify the method and reproducible pipeline under controlled shift, but do not establish clinical effectiveness. External validation on harmonized real asthma. Overall this artifact provides evidence for carefully governed real-cohort validation.