# TokenCast: Forecasting Token Consumption During LLM Agent Execution

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35760 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.35760/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Tool learning and function calling, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 35 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Tool learning and function calling](https://mlsanity.com/agents/tool-learning-and-function-calling/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

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- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [SWE-agent: Agent-Computer Interfaces Enable Automated Software Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15793/) (2024)
- [Search-R1: Training LLMs to Reason and Leverage Search Engines with Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09516/) (2025)
- [Constructing A Multi-hop QA Dataset for Comprehensive Evaluation of Reasoning Steps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.01060/) (2020)
- [SGLang: Efficient Execution of Structured Language Model Programs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07104/) (2023)
- [When Not to Trust Language Models: Investigating Effectiveness of Parametric and Non-Parametric Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10511/) (2022)
- [Measuring and Narrowing the Compositionality Gap in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03350/) (2022)
- [OpenHands: An Open Platform for AI Software Developers as Generalist Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16741/) (2024)
- [MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Composition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00573/) (2021)
- [DSPy: Compiling Declarative Language Model Calls into Self-Improving Pipelines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03714/) (2023)
- [C-Pack: Packed Resources For General Chinese Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07597/) (2023)
- [Executable Code Actions Elicit Better LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01030/) (2024)
- [LongBench v2: Towards Deeper Understanding and Reasoning on Realistic Long-context Multitasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15204/) (2024)
- [FlashRAG: A Modular Toolkit for Efficient Retrieval-Augmented Generation Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13576/) (2024)
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- [Efficient LLM Scheduling by Learning to Rank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.15792/) (2024)
- [S3: Increasing GPU Utilization during Generative Inference for Higher Throughput](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06000/) (2023)
- [Efficient Interactive LLM Serving with Proxy Model-based Sequence Length Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08509/) (2024)
- [Reducing Cost of LLM Agents with Trajectory Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23586/) (2025)
- [Don't Stop Me Now: Embedding Based Scheduling for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01035/) (2024)
- [How Do AI Agents Spend Your Money? Analyzing and Predicting Token Consumption in Agentic Coding Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.22750/) (2026)
- [TraceLab: Characterizing Coding Agent Workloads for LLM Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30560/) (2026)
- [Tokenomics: Quantifying Where Tokens Are Used in Agentic Software Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.14470/) (2026)
- [LiveClawBench: Benchmarking LLM Agents on Complex, Real-World Assistant Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.13072/) (2026)
- [Predicting LLM Output Length via Entropy-Guided Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11812/) (2026)
- [Scheduling LLM Inference with Uncertainty-Aware Output Length Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.00499/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

When a large language model (LLM) agent executes the same task, token consumption can vary by over an order of magnitude across runs. The agent chooses its next steps based on tool feedback and intermediate results, while the growing context steadily inflates the input size of every subsequent call. The total consumption of a task is therefore hard to predict before execution and the prediction must be revised as the run unfolds. In this paper, we propose TokenCast, which learns a composable cost representation for each execution segment, recording its own consumption and the context growth it introduces. Composing adjacent segments yields a cumulative estimate that captures the extra input cost incurred when context from earlier segments is re-read by every later call. As execution unfolds, newly observed evidence refreshes the forecast, requiring no additional LLM calls and incurring a mean cumulative prediction time of 32.8 ms per run on SWE-bench Verified. Across 4 task suites and 6 agent models, TokenCast's mean absolute error reduction against the strongest comparator averages 14.5% over 96 evaluated combinations. In offline budget-control replay, TokenCast uses 21.3% fewer tokens on average than a fixed-budget policy at matched trace completion. The code is available at https://github.com/DEFENSE-SEU/TokenCast.