# MaPP: A Unified Marginalized Posterior-Predictive Framework for Data-Efficient RLVR

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34990 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34990/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 22 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [Decoupled Weight Decay Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05101/) (2017)
- [Understanding R1-Zero-Like Training: A Critical Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20783/) (2025)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Group Sequence Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18071/) (2025)
- [VAPO: Efficient and Reliable Reinforcement Learning for Advanced Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05118/) (2025)
- [Self-Evolving Curriculum for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14970/) (2025)
- [Act Only When It Pays: Efficient Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning via Selective Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02177/) (2025)
- [CPPO: Accelerating the Training of Group Relative Policy Optimization-Based Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.22342/) (2025)
- [Your Group-Relative Advantage Is Biased](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.08521/) (2026)
- [SPEED-RL: Faster Training of Reasoning Models via Online Curriculum Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09016/) (2025)
- [CurES: From Gradient Analysis to Efficient Curriculum Learning for Reasoning LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01037/) (2025)
- [Small Generalizable Prompt Predictive Models Can Steer Efficient RL Post-Training of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01970/) (2026)
- [Dynamics-Predictive Sampling for Active RL Finetuning of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10887/) (2026)
- [Efficient RLVR Training via Weighted Mutual Information Data Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.01907/) (2026)
- [Action-depedent Control Variates for Policy Optimization via Stein's Identity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11198/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models but incurs substantial costs from rollouts and policy updates. Online prompt selection improves efficiency by using per-prompt Bayesian posteriors to predict difficulty and prioritize informative prompts. However, existing methods overlook how reliably learning signals are extracted from sampled responses. In GRPO, a response's advantage depends on both its own outcome and the randomly sampled outcomes of its peers through group normalization. Our theoretical and experimental analyses show that uncertainty in group composition introduces composition noise, a non-vanishing variance component that imposes an irreducible lower bound on gradient estimation error and impairs downstream prompt selection. We propose MaPP (Marginalized Posterior-Predictive), a unified framework for data-efficient RLVR that denoises response-level advantage estimation and improves prompt selection using a shared Beta posterior. For each response, MaPP replaces the standard group-relative advantage with a composition-invariant intrinsic advantage through closed-form Beta-Binomial marginalization. The resulting posterior-predictive estimator has an error that provably diminishes as the posterior concentrates. Using the same posterior, MaPP derives an uncertainty-aware prompt selection score to improve data efficiency without additional rollout cost. Experiments on mathematics, planning, and visual geometry across five model backbones show that MaPP consistently outperforms GRPO and strong selection baselines, achieving up to +2.45 average accuracy improvement over the strongest baseline under the same rollout budget and setting a new state of the art.