# When Words Fall Short: Iterative Synergy Between Verbalized Reasoning and Hidden Features for LLM Confidence Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34454 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34454/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 28 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-benchmarks-and-evaluation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Tulu 3: Pushing Frontiers in Open Language Model Post-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15124/) (2024)
- [Measuring short-form factuality in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04368/) (2024)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Agent Hospital: A Simulacrum of Hospital with Evolvable Medical Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02957/) (2024)
- [Reasoning Models Know When They're Right: Probing Hidden States for Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05419/) (2025)
- [Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10136/) (2024)
- [Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.16806/) (2025)
- [Big-Math: A Large-Scale, High-Quality Math Dataset for Reinforcement Learning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17387/) (2025)
- [On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14737/) (2024)
- [Rewarding Doubt: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Calibrated Confidence Expression of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02623/) (2025)
- [How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.17839/) (2026)
- [Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17989/) (2025)
- [Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.11800/) (2025)
- [Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09117/) (2026)
- [ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10913/) (2025)
- [The Illusion of Certainty: Decoupling Capability and Calibration in On-Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.16830/) (2026)
- [LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.05306/) (2026)
- [Annotation-Efficient Universal Honesty Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17509/) (2025)
- [ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12446/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Confidence estimation is crucial for developing trustworthy large language models (LLMs), with most methods following estimator-based or verbalization-based paradigms. While recent research increasingly focuses on improving verbalized self-reports of confidence, we challenge the prevailing view that this approach surpasses independent confidence estimators. Our empirical study shows that a dedicated confidence estimator can substantially outperform verbalized confidence, indicating that LLMs' internal representations contain richer confidence signals. Building on this finding, we propose Iterative Policy-Estimator Training (IPoET), a framework that synergizes the complementary strengths of verbalized reasoning traces and informative representations. IPoET alternates policy optimization with estimator updating, integrating estimator-derived confidence feedback into policy learning and refreshing the estimator on new policy rollouts. Experiments across diverse datasets and Qwen and Llama backbones demonstrate that, by iteratively exploiting richer hidden features and adapting to the evolving policy distribution, IPoET consistently outperforms both estimator- and verbalization-based baselines in-domain and achieves superior or comparable results across all out-of-domain metrics. For more details, refer to https://github.com/xyk829/ipoet.