# GeoCFM: Positive-Only Conditional Flow Matching for Mineral Occurrence Sampling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34398 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34398/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 11 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [PointFlow: 3D Point Cloud Generation with Continuous Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.12320/) (2019)
- [PointRend: Image Segmentation as Rendering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.08193/) (2019)
- [Positive-Unlabeled Learning with Non-Negative Risk Estimator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.00593/) (2017)
- [Learning from positive and unlabeled data: a survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04820/) (2018)
- [Mixture Proportion Estimation via Kernel Embedding of Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02501/) (2016)
- [Class-prior Estimation for Learning from Positive and Unlabeled Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.01586/) (2016)
- [Beyond the Selected Completely At Random Assumption for Learning from Positive and Unlabeled Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.03207/) (2018)
- [Attention-Guided Flow-Matching for Sparse 3D Geological Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.09700/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Critical mineral discovery is a positive-only problem: deposits are observed as sparse locations, while unlabeled regions are not reliable negatives, and similar geophysical signatures can arise from different subsurface states. We therefore model mineral targeting as learning a conditional spatial distribution over occurrence locations, π(pmid d), given geo-images d, rather than predicting a deterministic per-pixel score map. We introduce GeoCFM, a conditional flow-matching model that generates mineral occurrence point sets conditioned on multi-channel geo-images; GeoCFM learns a point-wise transport field in ℝ2, using UNet features with point-conditioned velocity prediction to bridge dense rasters and sparse supervision without pseudo-negatives. On a synthetic magnetics--geochemistry benchmark with latent activation and on USGS Earth MRI data with a spatially disjoint tile split, GeoCFM improves geometric agreement with observed occurrences over score-map and non-conditional baselines, while representing epistemic uncertainty through conditional sampling.