# OSCC: Certified Observation-Safe Coupling Optimization for Gradient-Noise Control in Imperfect-Information Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33543 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.33543/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [High-Dimensional Continuous Control Using Generalized Advantage Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02438/) (2015)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [Qwen2.5-Math Technical Report: Toward Mathematical Expert Model via Self-Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12122/) (2024)
- [OpenSpiel: A Framework for Reinforcement Learning in Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.09453/) (2019)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning from Self-Play in Imperfect-Information Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.01121/) (2016)
- [Using Common Random Numbers for Simulation-based Planning with Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.04732/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Coupled rollouts can reduce the noise of counterfactual action comparisons, but two issues prevent standard common-random-number constructions from serving as a general learning primitive in imperfect-information environments. First, an invalid coupling may expose hidden state, synchronize endogenous policy randomness, or misalign chance events after counterfactual histories diverge. Second, in multi-action policy optimization, lower return-contrast variance is not by itself the relevant objective: the optimizer depends on the return covariance matrix after projection through the local policy-gradient geometry. We introduce observation-safe counterfactual coupling (OSCC), a framework that defines an admissible class through marginal preservation, information-state safety, branch-local policy randomness, semantic event alignment, and trace-before-oracle replay. We derive a gradient-aware coupling criterion showing that, for marginal-preserving couplings, policy-gradient noise changes are determined by policy-Jacobian-weighted off-diagonal return covariance. This motivates OSCC-Select, a calibration-only selector that chooses among independent, root-only, continuation-only, and fully coupled rollouts using separate safety and gain certificates. Its gain target combines projected gradient noise with measured physical sampling cost and falls back to independent sampling whenever a simultaneous lower confidence bound does not certify improvement. On 100,000 fixed-root Leduc comparisons, the fully coupled CP-GRPO instantiation reduces return-contrast variance from 41.1158 to 18.1441, a 55.87% reduction, while preserving the declared branch marginals. With three actions, OSCC-Select chooses continuation coupling and attains gradient-noise trace 0.0783 versus 0.0917 for return-variance selection. Increasing calibration from 64 to 2,048 groups raises certification from 0.327 to 0.995.