# Routing Drift Alone Does Not Diagnose Failure in Merged MoE LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.32821 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32821/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Expert routing strategies, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 48 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [Expert routing strategies](https://mlsanity.com/moe/expert-routing-strategies/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 48)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [PIQA: Reasoning about Physical Commonsense in Natural Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11641/) (2019)
- [BoolQ: Exploring the Surprising Difficulty of Natural Yes/No Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10044/) (2019)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [GShard: Scaling Giant Models with Conditional Computation and Automatic Sharding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16668/) (2020)
- [Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05482/) (2022)
- [Editing Models with Task Arithmetic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04089/) (2022)
- [DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19348/) (2026)
- [DeepSeekMoE: Towards Ultimate Expert Specialization in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06066/) (2024)
- [TIES-Merging: Resolving Interference When Merging Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01708/) (2023)
- [Language Models are Super Mario: Absorbing Abilities from Homologous Models as a Free Lunch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03099/) (2023)
- [Mixture-of-Experts with Expert Choice Routing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.09368/) (2022)
- [Merging Models with Fisher-Weighted Averaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09832/) (2021)
- [ST-MoE: Designing Stable and Transferable Sparse Expert Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08906/) (2022)
- [OLMoE: Open Mixture-of-Experts Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02060/) (2024)
- [Model Merging in LLMs, MLLMs, and Beyond: Methods, Theories, Applications and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.07666/) (2024)
- [AdaMerging: Adaptive Model Merging for Multi-Task Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02575/) (2023)
- [From Sparse to Soft Mixtures of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.00951/) (2023)
- [Evolutionary Optimization of Model Merging Recipes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13187/) (2024)
- [ZipIt! Merging Models from Different Tasks without Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.03053/) (2023)
- [Task Singular Vectors: Reducing Task Interference in Model Merging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00081/) (2024)
- [Model merging with SVD to tie the Knots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19735/) (2024)
- [Twin-Merging: Dynamic Integration of Modular Expertise in Model Merging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15479/) (2024)
- [Merge, Then Compress: Demystify Efficient SMoE with Hints from Its Routing Policy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01334/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Model merging efficiently combines specialized large language models (LLMs) without joint retraining, but can substantially alter expert routing in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Such routing drift is often interpreted as routing failure, raising a fundamental question that remains unclear: does routing drift after MoE merging actually indicate routing failure, and what evidence should justify repair? We investigate these questions across DeepSeekMoE, OLMoE, and Qwen3-MoE proposing a routing analysis toolkit for controlled counterfactual interventions and token-level analysis. By crossing source and merged router inputs and parameters, we attribute most expert reassignments to input shifts rather than parameter changes at the same layer. However, source-relative routing differences poorly predict next-token likelihood gains from source-route restoration, and different expert selections can produce directionally similar mixture outputs. We therefore operationalize routing failure as textittask loss recoverable under a specified routing intervention, with non-routing parameters fixed. These tests detect recoverable loss under deliberate router corruption, whereas source-route restoration does not establish reliable task benefits in the evaluated merged models. Motivated by these, we propose Selective Router Repair (SRR) as a case study, and find that source-specialist token-likelihood advantages do not reliably identify beneficial local corrections. Together, these findings show that routing drift alone is insufficient evidence of routing failure: source-informed corrections must be judged by their task-level intervention effects. The analysis toolkit and SRR code are released.