# STAMP: Predicting Out-of-Distribution Generalization without Target Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.32672 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32672/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 36 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 36)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Training data-efficient image transformers & distillation through attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.12877/) (2020)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07780/) (2020)
- [The Many Faces of Robustness: A Critical Analysis of Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16241/) (2020)
- [MLP-Mixer: An all-MLP Architecture for Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.01601/) (2021)
- [CheXpert: A Large Chest Radiograph Dataset with Uncertainty Labels and Expert Comparison](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.07031/) (2019)
- [Natural Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07174/) (2019)
- [ChestX-ray8: Hospital-scale Chest X-ray Database and Benchmarks on Weakly-Supervised Classification and Localization of Common Thorax Diseases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.02315/) (2017)
- [CoAtNet: Marrying Convolution and Attention for All Data Sizes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04803/) (2021)
- [MViTv2: Improved Multiscale Vision Transformers for Classification and Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.01526/) (2021)
- [MaxViT: Multi-Axis Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01697/) (2022)
- [Confounding variables can degrade generalization performance of radiological deep learning models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00431/) (2018)
- [Accuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.04649/) (2021)
- [VinDr-CXR: An open dataset of chest X-rays with radiologist's annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15029/) (2020)
- [LEEP: A New Measure to Evaluate Transferability of Learned Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.12462/) (2020)
- [LogME: Practical Assessment of Pre-trained Models for Transfer Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11005/) (2021)
- [Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.04234/) (2022)
- [MetaFormer Baselines for Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13452/) (2022)
- [Exploring scalable medical image encoders beyond text supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10815/) (2024)
- [TorchXRayVision: A library of chest X-ray datasets and models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00595/) (2021)
- [Predicting with Confidence on Unseen Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03315/) (2021)
- [Theoretical Analysis of Domain Adaptation with Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.04420/) (2016)
- [An Information-Theoretic Approach to Transferability in Task Transfer Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10082/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting whether a trained model will generalize under distribution shift remains difficult, especially when target-domain data are unavailable. We introduce STAMP (Semantic Temporal Augmented Model Prediction), a source-only, target-label-free criterion that estimates out-of-distribution (OOD) performance from paired source-domain images. STAMP computes the output-space correlation ratio η2=SB/ST by contrasting semantically stable pairs with random pairs: higher η2 indicates that model outputs vary with semantic identity rather than nuisance variation. On 44 chest X-ray models spanning CNNs, ViTs, MetaFormers, foundation models, and SSL/VLM probes, temporal STAMP attains Spearman correlations of 0.844--0.855 with macro AUROC on VinDr-CXR, CheXpert, and MIMIC-CXR; a class-matched variant improves single-class RSNA from 0.311 to 0.663. STAMP attains the best average source-only medical ranking and outperforms the target-domain ATC and AoTL estimators without any target data. On 27 ImageNet models, temperature-scaled STAMPTS attains ρ=0.984 on ObjectNet and ρ≥0.905 on four additional distribution shifts, with partial correlations of 0.662--0.949 after controlling for ImageNet accuracy. Requiring approximately 12s per model on one GPU, STAMP is a practical pre-deployment model-selection and auditing tool.