# Typed Temporal Interaction Features for Simulation-Backed Forecasting of Open-Source Game Release Incidents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31647 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31647/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Modeling Relational Data with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06103/) (2017)
- [CodeBERT: A Pre-Trained Model for Programming and Natural Languages](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08155/) (2020)
- [Predicting Dynamic Embedding Trajectory in Temporal Interaction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.01207/) (2019)
- [EvolveGCN: Evolving Graph Convolutional Networks for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10191/) (2019)
- [Devign: Effective Vulnerability Identification by Learning Comprehensive Program Semantics via Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.03496/) (2019)
- [Representation Learning for Dynamic Graphs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11485/) (2019)
- [A Survey of Machine Learning for Big Code and Naturalness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.06182/) (2017)
- [CC2Vec: Distributed Representations of Code Changes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.05620/) (2020)
- [The Impact of Automated Parameter Optimization on Defect Prediction Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.10270/) (2018)
- [GlitchBench: Can large multimodal models detect video game glitches?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.05291/) (2023)
- [JITLine: A Simpler, Better, Faster, Finer-grained Just-In-Time Defect Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07068/) (2021)
- [Dataset of Video Game Development Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00491/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Open-source video-game quality depends on inter-actions among code, assets, configuration, tests, contributors, and issue workflows, yet conventional defect predictors usually flatten or omit these relations. We investigate release-level forecasting of a quality incident within thirty days using GAMEQUALGRAPH-Pilot, a typed temporal feature pipeline with calibrated risk estimates and effort-aware ranking. Because the accessible OS-SGameBench materials do not provide manually audited release dates and outbreak labels, the executed evaluation is explicitly simulation-backed rather than an empirical claim about real games. Five seeded worlds each contain 120 projects and 24 releases, with project-disjoint validation and future cross-project testing. The pilot obtains an AUPRC of 0.520, AUROC of 0.673, Brier score of 0.207, and 29.68% effort-aware recall at a twenty-percent testing budget. Its closest local comparator, Static-Hetero-Reimpl, reaches 0.522 AUPRC; the -0.002 difference is not statistically significant after Holm correction. Inference requires 0.023 milliseconds per release in the measured environment. Ablations and controlled missingness, drift, engine, project-size, alert-threshold, and attribution analyses expose where typed interactions help and where they fail. Results support the reproducibility of the proposed protocol, not deployment effectiveness. Real OSSGameBench release reconstruction, stratified label audits, and official graph-model comparisons remain mandatory before journal submission or operational use in practice. This boundary protects research integrity and supports credible evaluation.