# Neural State Prediction: Obstructing Shortcut Learning in EEG Foundation Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31167 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31167/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 72 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [Bootstrap your own latent: A new approach to self-supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07733/) (2020)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Self-Supervised Learning from Images with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08243/) (2023)
- [V-JEPA 2: Self-Supervised Video Models Enable Understanding, Prediction and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09985/) (2025)
- [data2vec: A General Framework for Self-supervised Learning in Speech, Vision and Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03555/) (2022)
- [EEGNet: A Compact Convolutional Network for EEG-based Brain-Computer Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.08024/) (2016)
- [Large Brain Model for Learning Generic Representations with Tremendous EEG Data in BCI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18765/) (2024)
- [LeJEPA: Provable and Scalable Self-Supervised Learning Without the Heuristics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.08544/) (2025)
- [BENDR: using transformers and a contrastive self-supervised learning task to learn from massive amounts of EEG data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12037/) (2021)
- [CBraMod: A Criss-Cross Brain Foundation Model for EEG Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.07236/) (2024)
- [Transformer-based Spatial-Temporal Feature Learning for EEG Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11170/) (2021)
- [REVE: A Foundation Model for EEG -- Adapting to Any Setup with Large-Scale Pretraining on 25,000 Subjects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21585/) (2025)
- [Brain-JEPA: Brain Dynamics Foundation Model with Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19407/) (2024)
- [CSBrain: A Cross-scale Spatiotemporal Brain Foundation Model for EEG Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.23075/) (2025)
- [EEG2Rep: Enhancing Self-supervised EEG Representation Through Informative Masked Inputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17772/) (2024)
- [Inter-database validation of a deep learning approach for automatic sleep scoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.10365/) (2020)
- [Joint Embedding vs Reconstruction: Provable Benefits of Latent Space Prediction for Self Supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.12477/) (2025)
- [Data augmentation for learning predictive models on EEG: a systematic comparison](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14483/) (2022)
- [Improved EEG Event Classification Using Differential Energy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.02477/) (2018)
- [CodeBrain: Bridging Decoupled Tokenizer and Multi-Scale Architecture for EEG Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09110/) (2025)
- [LUNA: Efficient and Topology-Agnostic Foundation Model for EEG Signal Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.22257/) (2025)
- [S-JEPA: towards seamless cross-dataset transfer through dynamic spatial attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11772/) (2024)
- [NeuralBench: A Unifying Framework to Benchmark NeuroAI Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08495/) (2026)
- [THD-BAR: Topology Hierarchical Derived Brain Autoregressive Modeling for EEG Generic Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.13733/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

EEG foundation models increasingly use masked prediction to learn from unlabeled recordings, but optimizing this objective does not ensure transferable neural representations. A central challenge is that stable positional cues and local correlations can make masked regions predictable without integrating distributed neural context. To reduce this reliance on low-information prediction paths, we introduce Neural State Prediction (NSP), a latent-predictive framework that constrains both the prediction target and the available context. NSP uses a Target Encoder updated by an exponential moving average (EMA) to define latent supervision. Identity residualization removes additive effects associated with channel identity and relative time from the targets, while topology-separated context excludes their immediate spatial and temporal neighborhood from the visible input. We pretrain NSP on 2.2 million EEG segments from TUEG and evaluate it across 30 downstream datasets spanning clinical diagnosis, sleep staging, emotion recognition, motor imagery, event-related potentials, cognitive-state decoding, and language retrieval. Under full-parameter multi-task fine-tuning on EEG-FM-Bench, NSP achieves 63.94 macro balanced accuracy across 14 datasets, exceeding the strongest evaluated baseline by 2.35 percentage points. Controlled component ablations assess the contribution of each mechanism, while matched context controls and held-out interventions characterize the role of context geometry, signal content, and positional information. Jointly designing latent targets and their context offers a promising direction for EEG foundation models that learn from distributed signal structure.