# Stochastic Semantic Evidence Graphs: Uncertainty Propagation and Governance for Agentic AI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29703 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.29703/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Agent threats, guardrails and governance, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 34 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Agent threats, guardrails and governance](https://mlsanity.com/agents/agent-threats-guardrails-and-governance/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Self-RAG: Learning to Retrieve, Generate, and Critique through Self-Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11511/) (2023)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [FActScore: Fine-grained Atomic Evaluation of Factual Precision in Long Form Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14251/) (2023)
- [Model Cards for Model Reporting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03993/) (2018)
- [MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Composition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00573/) (2021)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Enabling Large Language Models to Generate Text with Citations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14627/) (2023)
- [Fact or Fiction: Verifying Scientific Claims](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.14974/) (2020)
- [Ragas: Automated Evaluation of Retrieval Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15217/) (2023)
- [Closing the AI Accountability Gap: Defining an End-to-End Framework for Internal Algorithmic Auditing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00973/) (2020)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [ToolSandbox: A Stateful, Conversational, Interactive Evaluation Benchmark for LLM Tool Use Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04682/) (2024)
- [RAGTruth: A Hallucination Corpus for Developing Trustworthy Retrieval-Augmented Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.00396/) (2023)
- [ARES: An Automated Evaluation Framework for Retrieval-Augmented Generation Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09476/) (2023)
- [Get Your Vitamin C! Robust Fact Verification with Contrastive Evidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.08541/) (2021)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [BALROG: Benchmarking Agentic LLM and VLM Reasoning On Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.13543/) (2024)
- [SWE-rebench: An Automated Pipeline for Task Collection and Decontaminated Evaluation of Software Engineering Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20411/) (2025)
- [PROV-AGENT: Unified Provenance for Tracking AI Agent Interactions in Agentic Workflows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02866/) (2025)
- [RCAEval: A Benchmark for Root Cause Analysis of Microservice Systems with Telemetry Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.17015/) (2024)
- [Do LLMs estimate uncertainty well in instruction-following?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14582/) (2024)
- [DRAGged into Conflicts: Detecting and Addressing Conflicting Sources in Search-Augmented LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.08500/) (2025)
- [Trained on Tokens, Calibrated on Concepts: The Emergence of Semantic Calibration in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04869/) (2025)
- [MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.24858/) (2025)
- [Attributing Response to Context: A Jensen-Shannon Divergence Driven Mechanistic Study of Context Attribution in Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.16415/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

AI-workflow governance cannot be reduced to checking the final answer: an apparently safe answer may rest on a fragile evidence path that ordinary evaluation cannot see, localize or govern. We call this hidden fragility a "structural iceberg": hallucinations and unsupported claims may form its visible tip, while consequential weakness remains submerged. Stochastic semantic evidence graphs (SSEGs) expose these icebergs by preserving workflow channels, propagating local uncertainty and identifying the hidden paths on which an apparently safe output depends. ALCE and RAGTruth show that visible failures at the tip -unsupported citations and hallucinated spans -rest on distinct submerged weaknesses and therefore require different interventions. Across retrieval, tool-use and controlled stress tests, SSEG localizes those weaknesses, supports targeted repair, produces no false automatic passes in 35,000 known-truth cases and reduces ToolSandbox review by 28.8% across 96 executions from two agent models. The same structural view carries into end-to-end governance: in a separately sealed 1,200-case FinGovBench study, adding SSEG to GPT-OSS-20B reduces unsafe releases from 452/660 to 8/660 while releasing all 540 safe cases and correctly distinguishing 592/600 matched workflow pairs. An unchanged-gate transfer to Qwen3-8B releases all 540 safe cases and none of 660 unsafe cases, whereas flat-UQ releases 520 unsafe cases. SSEG therefore moves governance below surface-level output checking, turning hidden evidence dependencies into auditable, path-specific decisions about intervention, revalidation and release.