# Active Client Selection in Federated Trajectory Prediction with Uncertainty-Awareness and Heterogeneous Complexity

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29600 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.29600/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05629/) (2016)
- [Advances and Open Problems in Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04977/) (2019)
- [Federated Optimization in Heterogeneous Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.06127/) (2018)
- [Towards Federated Learning at Scale: System Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.01046/) (2019)
- [Local SGD Converges Fast and Communicates Little](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.09767/) (2018)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [ChauffeurNet: Learning to Drive by Imitating the Best and Synthesizing the Worst](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03079/) (2018)
- [Fair Resource Allocation in Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10497/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Nonparametric Federated Learning of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12022/) (2019)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [Client Selection for Federated Learning with Heterogeneous Resources in Mobile Edge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.08333/) (2018)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [Lower Bounds for Non-Convex Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02365/) (2019)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [Convolutional Social Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06771/) (2018)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08417/) (2021)
- [Is Local SGD Better than Minibatch SGD?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07839/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty-aware Short-term Motion Prediction of Traffic Actors for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.05819/) (2018)
- [On Adversarial Robustness of Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.05057/) (2022)
- [Variance Reduction in SGD by Distributed Importance Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06481/) (2015)
- [Active Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12641/) (2019)
- [Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywhere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03909/) (2021)
- [On the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Federated Averaging with Heterogeneous Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04723/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Training sequence models such as transformers is now standard for autonomous vehicle trajectory prediction, yet assembling high-quality centralized datasets remains challenging because real-world trajectories are fragmented across regions and vehicles. Federated Learning (FL) offers a natural alternative, but faces two distinctive challenges: high scene uncertainty arising from trajectory or map ambiguity, and cross-scene complexity heterogeneity caused by diverse map topology, traffic density, agent composition, and driving behaviors. We propose a family of active client selection methods that progressively incorporate awareness of scene uncertainty and complexity to prioritize informative clients. Our uncertainty-aware selectors use per-client negative log-likelihood under an uncertainty-aware global objective and estimated aleatoric uncertainty. We further develop a selector that jointly considers scene complexity and uncertainty, motivated by the intuition that knowledge from complex scenes can transfer to easier ones. Experiments on Argoverse show that federated trajectory prediction outperforms locally trained models. Uncertainty-aware selection accelerates convergence and improves minADE, minFDE, and MR. Under strong scene-complexity heterogeneity, our joint complexity- and uncertainty-aware selector achieves the best generalization and further accelerates convergence, demonstrating the benefit of prioritizing complex and informative scenes.