# Broadening Uncertainty Estimation for Audio Question Answering Across Methods, Formats, and Inputs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28879 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.28879/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Qwen2.5-Omni Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20215/) (2025)
- [Qwen2-Audio Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10759/) (2024)
- [Phi-4-Mini Technical Report: Compact yet Powerful Multimodal Language Models via Mixture-of-LoRAs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01743/) (2025)
- [Large Language Models Are Not Robust Multiple Choice Selectors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.03882/) (2023)
- [MMAU: A Massive Multi-Task Audio Understanding and Reasoning Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19168/) (2024)
- [Audio Flamingo 3: Advancing Audio Intelligence with Fully Open Large Audio Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.08128/) (2025)
- [MMAR: A Challenging Benchmark for Deep Reasoning in Speech, Audio, Music, and Their Mix](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13032/) (2025)
- [MMSU: A Massive Multi-task Spoken Language Understanding and Reasoning Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04779/) (2025)
- [VL-Uncertainty: Detecting Hallucination in Large Vision-Language Model via Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.11919/) (2024)
- [Can multiple-choice questions really be useful in detecting the abilities of LLMs?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17752/) (2024)
- [SAKURA: On the Multi-hop Reasoning of Large Audio-Language Models Based on Speech and Audio Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13237/) (2025)
- [Answer Matching Outperforms Multiple Choice for Language Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02856/) (2025)
- [Understanding Sounds, Missing the Questions: The Challenge of Object Hallucination in Large Audio-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08402/) (2024)
- [AVCD: Mitigating Hallucinations in Audio-Visual Large Language Models through Contrastive Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20862/) (2025)
- [Reducing Object Hallucination in Large Audio-Language Models via Audio-Aware Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07233/) (2025)
- [An evaluation of word-level confidence estimation for end-to-end automatic speech recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.05525/) (2021)
- [HalluAudio: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Hallucination Detection in Large Audio-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19300/) (2026)
- [All That Glitters Is Not Audio: Rethinking Text Priors and Audio Reliance in Audio-Language Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.24401/) (2026)
- [AQUA-Bench: Beyond Finding Answers to Knowing When There Are None in Audio Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.12248/) (2026)
- [Hearing the Order: Investigating Position Bias in Large Audio-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.00628/) (2025)
- [VAUQ: Vision-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LVLM Self-Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.21054/) (2026)
- [Walking Through Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of Uncertainty Estimation for Audio-Aware Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25591/) (2026)
- [ORCA: Open-ended Response Correctness Assessment for Audio Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.09066/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Audio-language models can produce confident answers unsupported by the audio, motivating uncertainty estimates that identify unreliable responses. We compare probability-based, sampling-based, self-verification, evidential, and contrastive measures across four open-weight models and five audio QA benchmarks. In multiple-choice evaluation, first-token measures are strongest overall, with top-1 probability achieving a mean AUROC of .740, compared with .708 for ten-sample discrete semantic entropy, while requiring no additional model calls. Across four benchmarks, shifting from multiple-choice to open-ended evaluation lowers mean accuracy from 57.6% to 36.6%, yet uncertainty remains predictive of errors: semantic entropy, maximum token entropy, and semantic agreement achieve mean AUROCs of .697, .694, and .693, respectively. To test whether uncertainty reflects the evidence available to answer the question, we perform input ablations that remove either the audio or the question. Across top-1 confidence, entropy, and sampling-based measures, removing audio reduces error-detection AUROC by .101 on average, compared with .010 when removing the question. Together, these results establish efficient uncertainty baselines and show that uncertainty in audio-language models depends substantially more on available audio evidence than on question text.