# The Capability Manifold and ML Scaling Laws

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27588 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.27588/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 11 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.14701/) (2020)
- [When Scaling Meets LLM Finetuning: The Effect of Data, Model and Finetuning Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17193/) (2024)
- [Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04391/) (2024)
- [Theory of Scaling Laws for In-Context Regression: Depth, Width, Context and Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01098/) (2025)
- [U-shaped and Inverted-U Scaling behind Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01692/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Existing machine learning (ML) scaling laws relate predictive loss to compute, model parameters, and data. However, as models are increasingly deployed through agentic harnesses, loss alone is insufficient to characterize downstream performance: models with similar loss can exhibit different capabilities in reasoning, retrieval, planning, and adaptation. Yet, no unified framework connects such capabilities to the coupled resources available across the ML lifecycle. We bridge this gap by introducing a capability manifold, a multidimensional framework mapping downstream capabilities to pre-training, post-training, and test-time resources through bounded scaling functions. Analytical Jacobians quantify capability sensitivity to resource changes and interactions. As an initial application, we embed Kaplan- and Chinchilla-type scaling laws and test-time compute within the framework, demonstrating how existing scaling relationships can be unified as trajectories on a common capability manifold.