# Forecast Workflow Bench: Evaluating Language-Model Decisions with Budgeted Forecast Tools

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27385 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.27385/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model based Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11432/) (2023)
- [τ-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12045/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [API-Bank: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Tool-Augmented LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08244/) (2023)
- [ToolSandbox: A Stateful, Conversational, Interactive Evaluation Benchmark for LLM Tool Use Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04682/) (2024)
- [Gemma 4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.02770/) (2026)
- [Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14735/) (2024)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [CostBench: Evaluating Multi-Turn Cost-Optimal Planning and Adaptation in Dynamic Environments for LLM Tool-Use Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.02734/) (2025)
- [TemporalBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLM-Based Agents on Contextual and Event-Informed Time Series Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13272/) (2026)
- [TimeSeriesGym: A Scalable Benchmark for (Time Series) Machine Learning Engineering Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13291/) (2025)
- [TimeRouter: Efficient and Adaptive Routing of Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.11625/) (2026)
- [EcoAgent-Bench: Evaluating Economic Decision-Making in Budget-Constrained LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05519/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide forecasts for operational decisions, but accuracy alone does not determine their value. Evaluating agents that use these models requires measuring decision quality and forecast cost. FWBench evaluates this capability on 1,251 electricity and cycle-hire cases using fixed forecast tools and simulated capacity contracts. Agents select models, histories and horizons, then submit capacities to minimize a stated loss-cost objective. We evaluated two hosted and eight local configurations, including small language models, and tested local models with and without TSFMs. GPT-6 Astra bought inexpensive short-horizon forecasts selectively, using 2.5% of the budget, and outperformed fixed policies when the saved decisions were scored with three loss-cost weightings. FWBench enables reproducible evaluation of how language models select and use time-series forecasts to make decisions under cost constraints.