# Annual Earth-observation embeddings encode wildfire disturbance and support simplified burned area mapping

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25731 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.25731/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 68 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Foundation Models for Generalist Geospatial Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.18660/) (2023)
- [AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.22291/) (2025)
- [PANGAEA: A Global and Inclusive Benchmark for Geospatial Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04204/) (2024)
- [TESSERA: Temporal Embeddings of Surface Spectra for Earth Representation and Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20380/) (2025)
- [Recurrent Video Masked Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.13684/) (2025)
- [CITYREP: A Unified Benchmark for Urban Representations Across Cities, Tasks, and Modalities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26036/) (2026)
- [TESSERA v2: Scaling Pixel-wise Earth Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.03949/) (2026)
- [Deep Learning-Based Burned Area Mapping Using Bi-Temporal Siamese Networks and AlphaEarth Foundation Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.07852/) (2025)
- [Better Together: Evaluating the Complementarity of Earth Embedding Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.18667/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Medium-resolution (10-30 m) burned area mapping is vital for monitoring wildfires and their impacts, but remains difficult to scale. Existing methods require either curated fire-specific imagery or dense time-series analysis. Here, we tested whether annual Earth-observation embeddings retain wildfire disturbance signals sufficiently to map burned areas without either requirement. Using Tessera and AlphaEarth embeddings, we tested individual burn-scar delineation, mapping of all same-year fires within an area, regional wall-to-wall mapping, cross-continental transfer, and intra-annual fire timing. Tessera strongly encoded wildfire disturbance, allowing even linear models to separate burned from unburned pixels; the signal was weaker in AlphaEarth. Models trained on a single Tessera embedding matched or exceeded equivalent models using paired pre- and post-fire HLS imagery, and outperformed post-fire imagery alone. The same approach mapped all same-year fires within benchmark scenes (F1 = 0.90). Applied across California, with no California fire data used for downstream training, it recovered 97% of reference burned area and detected substantially more small and medium-sized fires than GABAM or MCD64A1. Separately, a model trained on 2018-2021 US fires transferred without retraining to 88 European fires from 2024-2025 (F1 = 0.88). For well-detected fires, ignition timing was recovered with a mean absolute error of 13 days. Performance declined for fires ignited near the end of the calendar year, and wall-to-wall deployment produced systematic false positives in some unseen landscapes. Annual embeddings nevertheless achieve high segmentation accuracy while moving the burden of dense time series processing upstream, providing a promising path towards simpler regional burned area mapping.