# Learning Prognostic Variables for AI Convective Parameterizations via Symbolic Distillation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24882 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.24882/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Deep learning for universal linear embeddings of nonlinear dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.09707/) (2017)
- [PySINDy: A comprehensive Python package for robust sparse system identification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.08481/) (2021)
- [Discovering Governing Equations from Partial Measurements with Deep Delay Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.05136/) (2022)
- [Machine Learning for Stochastic Parameterization: Generative Adversarial Networks in the Lorenz '96 Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04711/) (2019)
- [Climate-Invariant Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08440/) (2021)
- [A Comprehensive Review of Latent Space Dynamics Identification Algorithms for Intrusive and Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order-Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.10748/) (2024)
- [An Approach to Symbolic Regression Using Feyn](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05417/) (2021)
- [Temporally Consistent Koopman Autoencoders for Forecasting Dynamical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12335/) (2024)
- [Using Probabilistic Machine Learning to Better Model Temporal Patterns in Parameterizations: a case study with the Lorenz 96 model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.14814/) (2022)
- [Distilling Machine Learning's Added Value: Pareto Fronts in Atmospheric Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.02161/) (2024)
- [climt-paraformer: Stable Emulation of Convective Parameterization using a Temporal Memory-aware Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.21085/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Hybrid AI-physics climate modeling aims to improve coarse (~100km-resolution) Earth system models by learning to parameterize subgrid processes from high-fidelity data. However, this so far mostly involves local-in-time, diagnostic parameterizations, in which the subgrid state depends only on the current coarse state with no memory of previous states, which is unrealistic for processes such as convection that have intrinsic persistence. To address this, we enhance local-in-time parameterizations by learning prognostic variables that compactly carry important, additional past information where no explicit sub-grid information is available. First we compress past information into a low-dimensional latent space using an autoencoder, which then informs a neural network trained to parameterize targeted subgrid-scale processes. We then replace the autoencoder with symbolic equations that govern the time evolution of the latent variables, yielding additional prognostic memory variables that can be integrated alongside the resolved atmospheric state. We evaluate this approach on two systems: the Lorenz-96 model (online) and surface precipitation from high-resolution atmospheric simulations (offline). A forced multivariate linear ordinary differential equation recovers most of the added value achieved by the autoencoder-based approach in both experiments. Benchmarked against diagnostic parameterizations without memory, our memory-informed approach improves climate statistics and temporal structure, including a realistic diurnal cycle of tropical land precipitation.