# Uncertainty-driven training for three-dimensional calibrated lung nodule classification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20905 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.20905/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [MedMNIST v2 -- A large-scale lightweight benchmark for 2D and 3D biomedical image classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14795/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty-aware Self-ensembling Model for Semi-supervised 3D Left Atrium Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07034/) (2019)
- [Soft Calibration Objectives for Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00106/) (2021)
- [Revisiting Essential and Nonessential Settings of Evidential Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.00393/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Deep Co-training for Semi-supervised Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.11629/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Aware Training to Improve Deep Learning Model Calibration for Classification of Cardiac MR Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15141/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In this work, we present an uncertainty-driven training framework for three-dimensional computed tomography (CT) lung nodule classification, where validation-based uncertainty estimates guide loss reweighting to enhance predictive performance and probability calibration. Two Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are considered: Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). Both provide per-class uncertainty estimates that modulate the loss and encourage focus on hard or unreliable classes. The framework is evaluated with ResNet, DenseNet, EfficientNet, Vision Transformer (ViT), and Swin Transformer backbones on two datasets: the clinical LIDC-IDRI cohort and the NoduleMNIST3D benchmark. Uncertainty-driven training achieves classification performance similar to conventional training while substantially improving calibration, with an expected calibration error (ECE) reduced by up to 65% on LIDC-IDRI. EDL attains competitive performance on shallower architectures with single-pass inference, whereas MCD is more robust on deeper networks. Analysis across architectural families reveals that uncertainty-driven training benefits convolutional backbones more consistently than transformer-based architectures: EDL in particular degrades on ViT, suggesting that the Dirichlet evidence parameterisation may interact unfavourably with attention-based architectures at lower input resolutions. A posteriori temperature scaling proves highly effective across all configurations, indicating that a simple scalar calibration can be competitive even without explicit uncertainty-aware training. Our results indicate that integrating UQ into the training loop can significantly improve probabilistic calibration and support more trustworthy deployment of three-dimensional medical imaging models.