# Principled Koopman Representations with Kalman Inference for Efficient Time-Series Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17815 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.17815/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [FITS: Modeling Time Series with 10k Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03756/) (2023)
- [Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting via Conditioned Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06103/) (2020)
- [VAMPnets: Deep learning of molecular kinetics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.06012/) (2017)
- [Koopa: Learning Non-stationary Time Series Dynamics with Koopman Predictors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18803/) (2023)
- [Variational approach for learning Markov processes from time series data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.04659/) (2017)
- [Generative Modeling of Regular and Irregular Time Series Data via Koopman VAEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02619/) (2023)
- [Koopman Neural Forecaster for Time Series with Temporal Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03675/) (2022)
- [ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Forecasting across Diverse Prediction Horizons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07446/) (2023)
- [Efficient Parametric SVD of Koopman Operator for Stochastic Dynamical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.07222/) (2025)
- [Estimate of Koopman modes and eigenvalues with Kalman Filter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02815/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The Koopman operator has been widely used for time-series prediction in dynamical systems. However, prior work that learns latent ``Koopman spaces'' using neural networks often did not construct a valid Koopman space for forecasting, as these representations may be mathematically inconsistent with the operator-theoretic formulation and fail to capture the intrinsic low-rank structure of system dynamics. To address this issue, we introduce K2SVD, a method that explicitly learns the leading singular functions of the Koopman operator by optimizing a Hilbert-Schmidt objective. This yields a well-defined low-rank approximation of the Koopman operator with an interpretable linear combination, featuring a compact latent space with less than 10% of the dimensions used in previous work. In the learned Koopman space, K2SVD further captures temporal evolution with a linear Gaussian state-space model and performs inference via Kalman filtering, mitigating noise accumulation during multi-step prediction. Empirical results show that K2SVD outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple datasets, with significantly faster prediction speeds and lower computational cost than previous efficiency-focused models. This highlights the benefits of principled low-rank Koopman representations and opens up broader potential for applications.