# Bridging the Confidence Gap: Temperature Scaling for Calibrating Test-Time Prompt Tuning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17386 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.17386/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 58 of its 76 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 58)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Scaling Up Visual and Vision-Language Representation Learning With Noisy Text Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05918/) (2021)
- [The Power of Scale for Parameter-Efficient Prompt Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08691/) (2021)
- [Sigmoid Loss for Language Image Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15343/) (2023)
- [Describing Textures in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.3618/) (2013)
- [The Many Faces of Robustness: A Critical Analysis of Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16241/) (2020)
- [Fine-Grained Visual Classification of Aircraft](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1306.5151/) (2013)
- [Visual Prompt Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12119/) (2022)
- [Do ImageNet Classifiers Generalize to ImageNet?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10811/) (2019)
- [Conditional Prompt Learning for Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05557/) (2022)
- [Natural Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07174/) (2019)
- [Learning Robust Global Representations by Penalizing Local Predictive Power](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13549/) (2019)
- [When Does Label Smoothing Help?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02629/) (2019)
- [AugMix: A Simple Data Processing Method to Improve Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02781/) (2019)
- [MaPLe: Multi-modal Prompt Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03117/) (2022)
- [Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning for Large Models: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14608/) (2024)
- [Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01685/) (2019)
- [Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07998/) (2021)
- [Test-Time Prompt Tuning for Zero-Shot Generalization in Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07511/) (2022)
- [MEMO: Test Time Robustness via Adaptation and Augmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.09506/) (2021)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Test-Time Adaptation under Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15361/) (2023)
- [Visual-Language Prompt Tuning with Knowledge-guided Context Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.13283/) (2023)
- [On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11001/) (2019)
- [Simple but Effective: CLIP Embeddings for Embodied AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09888/) (2021)
- [Scaling Down to Scale Up: A Guide to Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15647/) (2023)
- [Diverse Data Augmentation with Diffusions for Effective Test-time Prompt Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.06038/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Test-time prompt tuning (TPT) enables adaptation on a single test instance, achieving improved accuracy but often sacrificing calibration performance. Most existing calibration methods introduce additional regularization terms to promote dispersion across text embeddings and reduce calibration error, yet these methods often suffer from a drop in accuracy. Motivated by the well-calibrated nature of zero-shot predictions, we propose CoTS, a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration method that preserves accuracy. Specifically, CoTS applies temperature scaling to minimize the confidence gap between adapted and zero-shot predictions. To fully exploit the potential of multiple augmentations during adaptation, we introduce a weak-strong ensemble strategy that further boosts accuracy. We then apply CoTS to this ensemble, termed E-CoTS, to maintain its well-calibrated property. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets and backbones show that our approaches effectively mitigate miscalibration without compromising primary accuracy. For instance, E-CoTS reduces the average expected calibration error of TPT from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants, while even increasing accuracy from 60.74% to 62.95%. Moreover, when integrated with existing calibration methods, E-CoTS usually enhances both accuracy and calibration simultaneously.