# Certified Uncertainty Propagation in One-Shot Federated Bayesian Models via Posterior Event Transport

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.16373 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.16373/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05629/) (2016)
- [Fashion-MNIST: a Novel Image Dataset for Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07747/) (2017)
- [Advances and Open Problems in Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04977/) (2019)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Measuring the Effects of Non-Identical Data Distribution for Federated Visual Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.06335/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Nonparametric Federated Learning of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12022/) (2019)
- [On the Effectiveness of Interval Bound Propagation for Training Verifiably Robust Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.12715/) (2018)
- [FedBE: Making Bayesian Model Ensemble Applicable to Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.01974/) (2020)
- [One-Shot Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.11175/) (2019)
- [Federated Learning via Posterior Averaging: A New Perspective and Practical Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.05273/) (2020)
- [Personalized Federated Learning via Variational Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07977/) (2022)
- [Probabilistic Safety for Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10281/) (2020)
- [Statistical Guarantees for the Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.01980/) (2019)
- [FedLPA: One-shot Federated Learning with Layer-Wise Posterior Aggregation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.00339/) (2023)
- [Calibrated One Round Federated Learning with Bayesian Inference in the Predictive Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09817/) (2023)
- [BNN-DP: Robustness Certification of Bayesian Neural Networks via Dynamic Programming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10742/) (2023)
- [Adversarial Robustness Certification for Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13614/) (2023)
- [Tight Verification of Probabilistic Robustness in Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11627/) (2024)
- [Engineering Trustworthy AI: A Developer Guide for Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19361/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Probabilistic certification of Bayesian neural networks lower-bounds the posterior probability that a model satisfies a verifier-defined safety property. In one-shot federated Bayesian learning, however, the deployed model is obtained by aggregating parameters drawn from client-specific posterior distributions, so local certificates do not directly guarantee safety of the aggregated model. This paper develops a deployment-consistent certification framework by propagating local posterior events through the deployment aggregation rule, with an exact geometric characterization for Federated Averaging (FedAvg). Each client constructs disjoint hyper-rectangular regions in parameter space and computes their probability masses. The server forms Cartesian products of these regions, maps them through the deployment rule, and retains a product event only when its aggregation image is verified to satisfy the safety property. Under independent client posteriors, each product-event probability factorizes into local masses, and summing verified disjoint events yields a lower bound on safety probability of the deployed model. For FedAvg with nonnegative aggregation coefficients, the image of a Cartesian product of axis-aligned hyper-rectangles is exactly a weighted hyper-rectangle, introducing no set over-approximation. We distinguish the proposed transported-event certificate from direct certification under posterior distributions induced by FedAvg and Product-of-Gaussians aggregation. Experiments on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST under label-Dirichlet heterogeneity show that the transported FedAvg certificate ranges from 22.51% to 46.89%, while direct global certificates range from 72.05% to 91.39%. Results show that predictive accuracy and certifiable safety do not necessarily follow the same trend, and that global posterior constructions can exhibit distinct certification behavior across architectures.