# Transfer Learning for Socioeconomic Estimation in Forced-Displacement Settings

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15773 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.15773/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Visual Recognition and Description](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4389/) (2014)
- [Continental-Scale Building Detection from High Resolution Satellite Imagery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.12283/) (2021)
- [Micro-Estimates of Wealth for all Low- and Middle-Income Countries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07761/) (2021)
- [Better, Not Just More: Data-Centric Machine Learning for Earth Observation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.05327/) (2023)
- [Debiasing Machine Learning Predictions for Causal Inference Without Additional Ground Truth Data: "One Map, Many Trials" in Satellite-Driven Poverty Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.01341/) (2025)
- [A satellite foundation model for improved wealth monitoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23166/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Progress in inclusive household surveys has strengthened socioeconomic evidence for forcibly displaced populations, providing indispensable benchmarks on living conditions and welfare. However, these surveys remain resource-intensive and periodic, while conditions can change between rounds, particularly in settings affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. More frequently updated, spatially granular complementary evidence is therefore needed to identify where socioeconomic conditions may be changing between survey rounds and to inform operational prioritization. Earth observation and machine learning offer a scalable source of spatially explicit socioeconomic information. However, tools developed for general populations have not been systematically adapted and evaluated in forced displacement settings, where living conditions, settlement patterns, and displacement impacts may differ substantially. We address this gap by adapting a multimodal spatiotemporal vision transformer, pretrained on Demographic and Health Survey data from approximately 1.2 million households across 36 African countries, to forced displacement and host community settings in South Sudan, Cameroon, and Zambia. We develop and evaluate the updated, adapted model using socioeconomic indices derived from UNHCR FDS and RMS data. Our results show that satellite-derived geospatial covariates explain up to 66% of the variation in socioeconomic outcomes in camp-intersecting grids, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37 index points, and 41% in non-camp-intersecting areas, with an MAE of 5.41. The framework complements and adds value to periodic household surveys by filling critical spatial and temporal data gaps with regularly updated, model-based socioeconomic estimates. These estimates sustain insight between survey rounds and support timely humanitarian prioritization and field verification.