# From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15219 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.15219/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Datasheets for Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.09010/) (2018)
- [Data Cards: Purposeful and Transparent Dataset Documentation for Responsible AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01075/) (2022)
- [Temporal Graph Benchmark for Machine Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01026/) (2023)
- [Towards Reproducible LLM Evaluation: Quantifying Uncertainty in LLM Benchmark Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.03492/) (2024)
- [A Fused Large Language Model for Predicting Startup Success](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.03668/) (2024)
- [What Matters Most? A Quantitative Meta-Analysis of AI-Based Predictors for Startup Success](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.09675/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.