# Tabby: An Open Pretraining Recipe for Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13956 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.13956/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03003/) (2022)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [MiniCPM: Unveiling the Potential of Small Language Models with Scalable Training Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06395/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Deeply-Supervised Nets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.5185/) (2014)
- [TabICL: A Tabular Foundation Model for In-Context Learning on Large Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.05564/) (2025)
- [Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14735/) (2024)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00816/) (2025)
- [TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23719/) (2025)
- [catch22: CAnonical Time-series CHaracteristics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.10200/) (2019)
- [Understanding Warmup-Stable-Decay Learning Rates: A River Valley Loss Landscape Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05192/) (2024)
- [fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26468/) (2025)
- [Toto: Time Series Optimized Transformer for Observability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07874/) (2024)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Architectural Diversity and Open Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.05793/) (2024)
- [It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12147/) (2026)
- [Toto 2.0: Time Series Forecasting Enters the Scaling Era](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.20119/) (2026)
- [Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.04791/) (2026)
- [NuTime: Numerically Multi-Scaled Embedding for Large-Scale Time-Series Pretraining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07402/) (2023)
- [Exploring Representations and Interventions in Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12915/) (2024)
- [BLAST: Balanced Sampling Time Series Corpus for Universal Forecasting Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17871/) (2025)
- [CauKer: Classification Time Series Foundation Models Can Be Pretrained on Synthetic Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02879/) (2025)
- [TSPulse: Tiny Pre-Trained Models with Disentangled Representations for Rapid Time-Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13033/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Instance-Adaptive Prompts as Context for Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34786/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In this report, we release Tabby, a long context probabilistic time series foundation model, together with a complete and open recipe of how it was built. Tabby adopts an encoder-only patch Transformer architecture and concentrates the contributions on the data and the training procedure. The pretraining corpus combines an extended real-world collection, GIFT-Eval-Pretrain+ and BLAST, with synthetic data from KernelSynth and CauKerV2, an online generator that composes temporal dynamics through randomly sampled structural causal models. Training couples a progressive convergence schedule, which yields reusable intermediate checkpoints, with a deep quantile supervision objective for intermediate layers. The resulting 145M parameter backbone supports contexts of up to 8,192 observations and serves forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection, while a prompt-tuning module further improves in-distribution forecasting performance with the pretrained weights frozen. Tabby achieves competitive zero-shot forecasting performance on GIFT-Eval and the out-of-distribution TIME benchmark, while the same pretrained backbone also supports classification on the UCR Archive and zero-shot anomaly detection on TSB-AD-U. We release training pipeline and model as open source at huawei-noah/trustworthyAI.