# Fork Where the Model Changes Its Mind: Belief-Shift Branching for Tree-Structured Reinforcement Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11061 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.11061/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 37 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [HybridFlow: A Flexible and Efficient RLHF Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19256/) (2024)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [Understanding R1-Zero-Like Training: A Critical Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20783/) (2025)
- [OlympiadBench: A Challenging Benchmark for Promoting AGI with Olympiad-Level Bilingual Multimodal Scientific Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14008/) (2024)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14275/) (2022)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning at the Edge of the Statistical Precipice](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.13264/) (2021)
- [Process Reinforcement through Implicit Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01456/) (2025)
- [Improve Mathematical Reasoning in Language Models by Automated Process Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06592/) (2024)
- [ReST-MCTS*: LLM Self-Training via Process Reward Guided Tree Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03816/) (2024)
- [rStar-Math: Small LLMs Can Master Math Reasoning with Self-Evolved Deep Thinking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04519/) (2025)
- [MathArena: Evaluating LLMs on Uncontaminated Math Competitions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23281/) (2025)
- [Alphazero-like Tree-Search can Guide Large Language Model Decoding and Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17179/) (2023)
- [Omni-MATH: A Universal Olympiad Level Mathematic Benchmark For Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.07985/) (2024)
- [Rewarding Progress: Scaling Automated Process Verifiers for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08146/) (2024)
- [Step-DPO: Step-wise Preference Optimization for Long-chain Reasoning of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18629/) (2024)
- [Gemma 4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.02770/) (2026)
- [Agent Q: Advanced Reasoning and Learning for Autonomous AI Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.07199/) (2024)
- [VinePPO: Refining Credit Assignment in RL Training of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01679/) (2024)
- [Agentic Reinforced Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19849/) (2025)
- [Free Process Rewards without Process Labels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01981/) (2024)
- [AlphaMath Almost Zero: Process Supervision without Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03553/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Tree-structured rollouts give critic-free reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) step-level credit: fork a chain at an intermediate point, and sibling outcome differences estimate step value. Each fork adds sampling cost, so realistic budgets typically allow only a few forks per chain. A fork placed where the outcome is already largely settled yields siblings that mostly agree and provide almost no credit signal; hence, for a given tree size, where forks are placed largely determines how much step-level RL can gain. Most existing mainstream methods place forks by structure, such as fixed lengths, midpoints, and delimiters, or by next-token entropy. We formalize fork placement as locating the pivots of the chain's value curve, where the expected outcome turns. We propose belief-shift branching: read the model's answer belief at candidate boundaries and fork just before the step where consecutive beliefs diverge most. Three instantiations, none needing step-level supervision, span access levels: a black-box probe, a logit-lens depth profile, and a learned activation direction, which is fit offline and therefore used only in the validation before RL training. The signal only places forks, and the probe costs about 1% of step compute on mathematics and under 5% on code when it runs inside the rollout engine. In that validation, against Monte-Carlo value curves, a belief-shift signal ranks first in each of the eight model×benchmark panels, ahead of entropy, structural, and LLM-judge baselines. In RL across three model families and two domains, belief-shift forking leads every mathematics aggregate, on OLMo-3-7B by +2.6 aggregate and +2.9 on AIME 2026 over the strongest baseline, and sweeps every OLMo code column, by +6.5 on LiveCodeBench-medium.