# Black-Box Membership Inference via Word-Level Probability Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10611 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.10611/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Membership inference attacks, one of 12 directions in LLM safety and security.
- Builds on 21 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM safety and security / [Membership inference attacks](https://mlsanity.com/safety/membership-inference-attacks/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.3781/) (2013)
- [OPT: Open Pre-trained Transformer Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.01068/) (2022)
- [The Pile: An 800GB Dataset of Diverse Text for Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.00027/) (2020)
- [Membership Inference Attacks against Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.05820/) (2016)
- [Pythia: A Suite for Analyzing Large Language Models Across Training and Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01373/) (2023)
- [Enriching Word Vectors with Subword Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.04606/) (2016)
- [The Secret Sharer: Evaluating and Testing Unintended Memorization in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08232/) (2018)
- [GPT-NeoX-20B: An Open-Source Autoregressive Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06745/) (2022)
- [C-Pack: Packed Resources For General Chinese Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07597/) (2023)
- [The Falcon Series of Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16867/) (2023)
- [Membership Inference Attacks against Language Models via Neighbourhood Comparison](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18462/) (2023)
- [Speak, Memory: An Archaeology of Books Known to ChatGPT/GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00118/) (2023)
- [Privacy-Preserving In-Context Learning with Differentially Private Few-Shot Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.11765/) (2023)
- [Use of LLMs for Illicit Purposes: Threats, Prevention Measures, and Vulnerabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12833/) (2023)
- [DE-COP: Detecting Copyrighted Content in Language Models Training Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09910/) (2024)
- [ReCaLL: Membership Inference via Relative Conditional Log-Likelihoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15968/) (2024)
- [Con-ReCall: Detecting Pre-training Data in LLMs via Contrastive Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.03363/) (2024)
- [Membership Inference on LLMs in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.11314/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) have emerged as critical tools for auditing privacy risks in large language models (LLMs), aiming to determine whether a given text was included in a model's training corpus. However, most existing MIAs require access to per-token logits or probabilities, making them inapplicable in practice to proprietary LLMs that expose only textual continuations. To address this underexplored setting, we propose Word-level Probability MIA (WPMIA), a statistically principled MIA for strict black-box privacy auditing. WPMIA estimates word-level generation probabilities via Monte Carlo sampling with local kernel smoothing, then aggregates these estimates into a sequence-level likelihood estimator. Furthermore, WPMIA constructs the likelihood conditioned on different prefixes, thereby amplifying the distributional differences between members and non-members. We evaluate WPMIA across various open-source LLMs and find that it consistently outperforms existing black-box baselines. Importantly, we also evaluate WPMIA on modern proprietary LLMs, including GPT-5-Chat, Gemini-2.5-Flash, and Claude-4.5-Haiku, achieving an average TPR@5%FPR of 42.0 across these models. These results offer a sound foundation for future research on strict black-box membership inference. Code is available at hrefhttps://github.com/niusj03/WPMIAhttps://github.com/niusj03/WPMIA.