# Snugi-AI-v2 @ eRisk 2026 Task 2: Early Depression Detection via a Learned Stopping Policy with Sustained Confidence Gate

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.08161 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08161/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 10 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [DeBERTaV3: Improving DeBERTa using ELECTRA-Style Pre-Training with Gradient-Disentangled Embedding Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09543/) (2021)
- [MentalBERT: Publicly Available Pretrained Language Models for Mental Healthcare](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.15621/) (2021)
- [Domain-specific Continued Pretraining of Language Models for Capturing Long Context in Mental Health](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.10447/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We describe the Snugi-AI-v2 submission to eRisk 2026 Task 2, the second edition of contextualized early depression detection from Reddit discussions. Our central contribution is a learned MLP stopping policy trained to directly optimize ERDE50, replacing the fixed and tiered threshold strategies used in all prior eRisk Task 2 submissions. Combined with a sustained confidence gate that commits only after N=3 consecutive rounds of high policy confidence, the system reduces false positives caused by transient emotional posts without sacrificing recall. The pipeline encodes each discussion thread with a frozen MentalRoBERTa model, maps the accumulated representation to a depression probability via an MLP classifier, and delegates the timing decision to the learned policy. Our best run achieves F1 = 0.73 (Run 1) and F_latency = 0.70 (Runs 0 and 3), with a median alert round of 8 out of 500, completing the full evaluation in 1 hour 26 minutes, the fastest among all complete-submission teams. We report a systematic ablation across five runs spanning two encoder variants, four stopping strategies, and three gate values, along with negative results from GRPO policy training, BDI-II post filtering, MentalLongformer encoding, and DeBERTa ensembling. Code: https://github.com/chiuyuwen91/erisk-2026