# PRICE: A Systematic Study of LLM Adaptation Choices for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.05235 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.05235/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 26 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [LlamaFactory: Unified Efficient Fine-Tuning of 100+ Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13372/) (2024)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [A Prompt Pattern Catalog to Enhance Prompt Engineering with ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11382/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06196/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [From Explicit CoT to Implicit CoT: Learning to Internalize CoT Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14838/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models in Finance: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.10723/) (2023)
- [PromptCast: A New Prompt-based Learning Paradigm for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08964/) (2022)
- [Cutting Down on Prompts and Parameters: Simple Few-Shot Learning with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13353/) (2021)
- [Large Language Models for Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01801/) (2024)
- [Temporal Data Meets LLM -- Explainable Financial Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.11025/) (2023)
- [The Wall Street Neophyte: A Zero-Shot Analysis of ChatGPT Over MultiModal Stock Movement Prediction Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05351/) (2023)
- [Implicit Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02350/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.13912/) (2024)
- [Transfer Learning with Foundational Models for Time Series Forecasting using Low-Rank Adaptations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.11539/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit extreme volatility and non-stationary dynamics that challenge conventional forecasting methods. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise for time series forecasting, the combined effects of adaptation choices remain largely unexplored in financial settings. This study introduces PRICE, a structured approach for adapting LLMs to short-term Bitcoin price forecasting. Built on a 4-bit quantized LLaMA-3 8B model, PRICE investigates how fine-tuning, numerical representation, prompting, inference, and decoding jointly influence forecasting performance. PRICE integrates Parameter-efficient fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), Recursive multi-step inference, Integer-rounded numerical representation, Context-Task-Format (CTF) prompting, and Exact zero-temperature decoding. Ablation studies show that each component contributes to forecasting accuracy and reliability. LoRA enables efficient training on limited hardware, recursive inference improves accuracy, integer-rounded values reduce errors, CTF prompting outperforms Chain-of-Thought, Implicit Chain-of-Thought (iCoT), and few-shot prompting, and zero-temperature decoding improves stability during recursive forecasting. Comparative evaluation against eight transformer-based and time-series foundation models shows that PRICE achieves the lowest forecasting errors on both validation and test sets while maintaining robust performance across evaluation periods. Despite being based on a model primarily pretrained on text rather than time-series data, PRICE achieves competitive or superior performance relative to specialized foundation models. These findings demonstrate that adaptation choices critically determine the accuracy and robustness of LLMs for numerical time-series forecasting.